Nationals Review

Offseason Blogging: A Quasi-Scoop!

2005-10-06T23:21:00.000-04:00

Chris has been following the final week drive for #15, which guarantees a team will not lose its first round pick as free agent compensation. The Nats tied for this with Milwaukee at 81-81. So, who gets screwed?

Baseball America has the answer!

The determination is by previous year record, so the Nats win! (lose?) They're #15! No losing of the first-round pick! Yay!

Hat Tip (MetsGeek).

An Article of Note

2005-08-25T14:27:00.000-04:00

This week's Washington City Paper has a wonderful profile of Baseball Prospectus writer Chris Kahrl.

Game Recap: Houston 4, Washington 1, 14 innings

2005-07-26T00:45:00.000-04:00

Having been at RFK for this one, I've decided to point out some of the interesting things I saw, in a reasonable chronological order.

- The game was Armed Forces Day, making this the third game out of four that I've been to with a military theme feel (Memorial Day, July Fourth). The national anthem and G-d Bless America were sung by Caleb White, who impressed me very much with his quick pace and deep bass voice. I appreciate those things.

- The top of the first was notable for the Orlando Palmeiro steal. With Gary Bennett catching, it made things easier to run, although the Astros haven't been afraid all series. It's a nice skill to have, but the Nats simply don't have it. It also took John Patterson 27 pitches to get through the inning, so I figured he might make it through six.

- Wandy Rodriguez was pitching for the Astros, starting the day with an ERA north of 6. Brad Wilkerson doubled on the third pitch, but was stranded. Rodriguez retired 13 in a row after Wilkerson's double. The next two batters were Marlon Byrd's double and Bennett's RBI single.

- This was followed by Cristian Guzman's inning-ending double play. For the game, 0-2, 3 outs made.

- The Astros picked up two doubles on bad fielding by the Nats. The first was Palmeiro's in the third, in which Preston Wilson ran back, then right, then forward and missed the ball with a dive by about a foot. Then, in the sixth, Lance Berkman hit a ball to the wall, Byrd misjudged the wall, made an awkward leap and missed, leading to the Astros' first run two long fly balls later.

- Rodriguez was pulled in the eighth after walking Byrd. Chad Qualls was brought in, Bennett laid down a nice bunt, Mike Lamb threw the ball away, and it was now first and third with out. Frank then pinch-hit for Guzman with Brian Schneider and pinch-ran for Bennett with Kenny Kelly. Both moves are defensible, although Kelly's run is less important, Bennett's gone anyway with Schneider PHing, and I don't think that PHing for Guzman needs a defense.

- The question here now is, if you were playing for one run before, why stop? Why not try to suicide squeeze to get Byrd in? The offense is anemic anyway. But Schneider hit away, and hit a soft chopper to second. With the infield in, Kelly advanced, and Schneider was out. One out.

- Here now is the head scratcher. Patterson has recovered beautifully since the first, and is a pretty good bunter. Jamey Carroll has to come in to play short anyway, so if you want to PH, you might want him out there; he's also a good bunter. Again, it's the eighth. You can play for one run. And yet, Frank sends up Ryan Church, presumably to hit a long fly ball. He fails, grounding out to the pitcher. Wilkerson then strikes out to end the inning.

- Note: Frank's now exhausted the bench to just Vinny Castilla, available presumably only in emergencies.

- Chad Cordero throws 12 pitches in the ninth. With an off-day, you'd think he'd go two. Instead, the already overworked Luis Ayala comes in in the tenth. Then Mike Stanton for 2/3 inning. Then Gary Majewski for 1 and a 1/3.

- Meanwhile, remember that emergency? Yeah, Jose Guillen just got injured on a hit-by-pitch. Pinch runner: Ryan Drese. New defensive alignment: Vinny to third, Baerga to first, Wilkerson to right. Other than the HBP, of course, Dan Wheeler is blowing through the Nats' lineup.

- Chris Burke would get hit by a pitch, so Guillen can be happy his pitchers are defending him.

- Move to the top of the 14th, Hector Carrasco in his second inning of work, and with only the dead-armed from Friday Sun-Woo Kim and Joey Eischen left out there, Carrasco's finishing this game no matter how long it goes. He puts two guys on right away, then gives up a scary line drive to pinch-hitting pitcher Brandon Backe, in which Brad Wilkerson almost gets a double play by doubling Jose Vizcaino off of first. Then professional slap hitter Eric Bruntlett squeaked one over the left-field fence. 4-1 Astros.

- Eight Brad Lidge pitches later, drive home safely.

It was the eighth that was the most frustrating, because those are the types of innings that were scoring runs in June. Now, not so much. And here comes an important six-day stretch at Atlanta and Florida which is going to say a lot about where this team is going to be come September.

Run Distribution and the Nationals

2005-06-29T15:53:00.000-04:00

Over at The Hardball Times, Dave Studeman has been looking at the effects of run distribution on a team's record versus their expected record based on runs scored and runs allowed (the Pythagorean record). The best case of this this year is our Nationals who sit a whopping 14 games over .500 despite having allowed more runs than they've scored. As previously pointed out here and on other Nats blogs, a lot of this is due to the bullpen torching by Joe Horgan and Antonio Osuna early in the season. Here are the raw numbers, as of Tuesday night's game.

Runs	Times Scored
0	4
1	8
2	9
3	16
4	10
5	12
6	3
7	5
8	4
9	2
10	0
11	3

The above linked article (which you should probably read first if you're going to continue with this post) points out the expected winning percentage for each number of runs scored, and that the most important runs are numbers 2 through 5. The Nats exceed the expected winning percentage at every run value except for 4 runs, where they have a .400 winning percentage versus an expected winning percentage of .471.
The Nats have a perfect record when they score 6 runs or more, and are a stagerring 10-2 when they score 5 runs.

Some of this is probably due to the "pitching to the score" that Livan Hernandez and Chad Cordero have demonstrated so well. Per the THT article, adding up the offensive expected winning percentage only comes to 34 wins, 11 short of the actual number. This confirms what Nats fans have known for a while: the rest of the season is going to rely heavily on the pitching.

I'm going to keep tracking this, and will post periodically on these numbers.

(And no, I can't figure out how to get rid of that giant space. Sorry.)

A Brief Foray into Politics

2005-06-28T11:22:00.000-04:00

One thing that riles me up the most is an op-ed column that is completely devoid of logic. They appear regularly in papers across the country, from both ideological sides. But today's op-ed by Richard Cohen (usually a decent, if lazy, columnist) is so sloppy with facts that I had to e-mail him, and blog about it. It's a slam at conservatives for the popularity of Ed Klein's new book trashing Hillary Clinton. I haven't read the book, it sounds like a collection of sleaze but if Cohen had done any research, he'd find that most conservatives are either trashing the book or ignoring it. Here's my letter:

Richard,

You cite the popularity of Ed Klein’s new biography on Hillary Clinton as proof that conservatives “will buy anything, no matter how badly done, that attacks the Clintons or liberalism” even as you conveniently ignore (except for the brief Economist reference) that most conservatives, from Peggy Noonan to John Podhoretz have trashed the book in print. Nevermind the fact that, in all likelihood, a good number of the purchasers of the anti-Hillary tome aren’t died-in-the-wool conservatives.

In July 2004, you called Michael Moore’s Farenheit 9/11 “farrago of conspiracy theories” and “silly and so incomprehensible.” His movie, of course, was tops at the box office – propelled by many liberal Democrats eager to see a specious attack on our president – and our country. Likewise, hisbooks have consistently reached the top of the bestseller list. Are you going to condemn the many Democratic Congressional attendees of his movie and the many liberals who purchased his books and paid to see his movie?

I’m disappointed to see you misrepresent the conservative reaction to the book, and lazily insinuate that the popularity of the book is attributable to conservatives. Conservatives, in general, like to promote individual responsibility, and it would have been nice if you placed the blame on this trashy book directly where it lies: on Ed Klein himself. Instead, you take another cheap pot-shot at conservatives, who –- if you’ve done any research –- have not praised this book. Sounds like Hillary Clinton herself, in fact: blaming a liberal’s criticism of her on that vast-right wing conspiracy.

Another 5-4 Win!

2005-06-23T11:51:00.000-04:00

The Nats won yesterday, 5-4, completing a successful 5-4 road trip against the Angels, Rangers and Buccos and today the Supreme Court ruled, 5-4, that "local governments may seize people's homes and businesses -- even against their will -- for private economic development." This presumably will make it easier for the city to buy off the assortment of strip clubs and isolated homes around the Southeast ballpark site for the new ballpark.

At first glance, I'm not a big fan of the ruling, even though it may be one of those good policy, bad judicial logic type of decisions. (i.e. Roe v. Wade, to abortion rights advocates) It seems to give arbitrary power for governments to seize land without giving enough consideration But then again, I'm no expert on eminent domain law, so check out smart lawblogs (like Volokh) for more insightful commentary on the decision.

Some tough roster decisions will have to be made in the upcoming days. Travis Hughes has been great in his two appearances with the club, so when Joey Eischen returns from the DL at month's end, one of Ryan Drese, Hughes or Sunny Kim will have to be sent down. I'd bet Hughes would be the odd-man out, but I'd like to see him a bit longer with the Nats.

When Jose Vidro is activated off the 15-day DL -- perhaps as early as tomorrow -- one of the Nats' trio of utility infielders will have to be sent down. I'd say the no-brainer candidate is sub-.100 hitter Wil Cordero. He's contributed absolutely nothing to the team all year and I doubt his "chemistry" points will push him ahead of Jamey Carroll or Carlos Baerga.

Final note: ESPN Radio dissed the Nats again this morning with Steve Phillips' NL top five power ranking. No mention of the Nats at all, but the Braves placed #2, the Marlins #3, and the Phils #5. Where's the love?

Breaking Nats News

2005-06-10T14:27:00.000-04:00

Fresh off the wires...

The Nats trade Tomo Ohka to the Brewers and get 2B Junior Spivey. Also, Jeffrey Hammonds retires and Sunny Kim moves into the starting rotation, presumably tonight against the M's. Trader Jim also picks up former Rangers ace Ryan Drese off waivers.

Short-term, this looks like a good deal. But now, our vaunted pitching depth has vanished with Jon Rauch injured, Claudio Vargas released and Tomo Ohka traded.

Ryan Drese is a real gamble. He had some solid minor league peripheral numbers, but his 2004 season was pretty much smoke and mirrors; he's been awful this season. Perhaps a change from hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field to RFK will do him some good.

Return to Sender

2005-06-09T22:18:00.000-04:00

Natty Review (which is much more refreshing and full-bodied than Natty Lite) would like to welcome newest Phillie Ugueth U. Urbina to the NL East. Urbina's line vs. Texas tonight, according to ESPN.com:

Pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR ERA
Urbina 0.1 2 4 4 2 1 1 ######

In the immortal words of Elvis Presley, Urbina's NL ERA is "no such number, no such zone." Nevertheless, I think an ERA of ###### may still be lower than Dan Kolb's.

Bang! Zoom! How 'Bout Those Nats!

2005-06-06T23:39:00.000-04:00

I don't know if I can take these one-run wins anymore. Tonight, the Nats win yet again, 2-1 over Oakland, with my favorite Nat Nick Johnson driving in all the runs and showing off his glove again. I haven't followed or been as passionate about a team since the 1997 Orioles. Ever since Armando Benitez choked up an AL championship against the Tribe, I've followed the O's with their mindless management and enjoyed the progress that Moneyball-style teams, like the A's and Red Sox have made.

But now I'm really into the Nationals: their players, the city, the battle for first place. I've long been a cynic, but it's been thrilling following the Nats in their inaugural season. I always argued they were the ultimate Moneyball-type team: lots of solid, underrated players that get little attention. The team was universally picked in the cellar by nearly all the pundits; I had them around .500. When Linda Cropp almost scuttled the deal moving the Expos to Washington, I had many sleepless nights anxiously awaiting the resolution. And when ESPN profiled me as the Ultimate Nats fan, the evolution from critic to fan was complete.

Now I'm as anxious as ever as the Nats try to hold onto their notorious one-run leads. They did it last night against the A's. There's more of this to come, I'm sure.

Other Nats notes:

-- So, Patch can hit the lefties, eh? In only 18 at-bats, Church has hit lefties just swell: a .276 average and .444 slugging average. And the only reason he came to the plate against lefty Matt Perisho on Sunday is there was no one left on the bench. If his game-winning three-run blast wasn't enough to convince Frank he's an everyday player, I don't think anything will. Of course, he was benched again Tuesday, but at least Marlon Byrd is a fine replacement.

-- The 12-year-old "Alex the Phenom" on AOL Sports Bloggers radio show might be an enthusiastic guest, but he's no phenom and he still has a lot to learn. I can empathize: when I was 14 in the early days of the Internet, I once penned a letter to Orioles GM Pat Gillick after he signed Luis "She Looked 18" Polonia, an overrated hitter. For my age, I was a decent writer but my letter was nasty, unprofessional and I'm sure Gillick wouldn't even have glanced at it. It was full of snarky lines about how smart I was and how "idiotic" he was for signing guys like Ozzie Guillen and Joe Carter. I sent it out to one of those Orioles e-mail lists, and a few gave the standard, "Wow, that's impressive for a 14-year-old!" But the few wise members of the message board knew the letter was inappropriately written and immature.

Alex still has a lot to learn, and the sooner he realizes it, the better off he'll be. (And there, that's the cynic in me!)

Interleague Imbalances

2005-06-06T17:16:00.000-04:00

I hate interleague play. Two reasons: one, it creates matchups no one cares about, like Marlins-Mariners, as a gimmick to get three or four interesting matchups in the entire majors, and two, it creates an imbalance among the schedules of teams competing for the same playoff spot (I don't like the use of unbalanced schedules with a wild card system for the same reason). And that's what I'd like to discuss today, with a 12-game set of interleague games coming up in the next two weeks between the NL East and the AL West. However, there's a disconnect. Because the AL West only has four teams, one team in the NL East is playing an NL Central team during each series, and miss one of the AL West teams.

These are:

Mets -- miss Texas, play Houston
Phillies -- miss LA/Anaheim, play Milwaukee
Marlins -- miss Oakland, play Chicago Cubs
Braves -- miss Seattle, play Cincinnati (4)

And our Nats are the lucky team that gets to play all four AL West teams. So who has an advantage here? I ran the numbers with a quick and dirty methods, using two major variables. The first is the record of the opposition, and the second is the home/away factor, using the MLB figure this season -- a .580 home team winning percentage. This isn't that much -- less than half a win per 6 games, the length of the interleague homestands (All NL teams are at home versus AL teams this week, then it reverses next week).

Here are the schedules for reference (marked by HOME and away), with average opponent winning percentage (as of Monday morning) at home and on the road listed (The Braves' road schedule is weighted because of the 4 games versus Cincinnati).

Mets -- HOU, LAA (.477 home), oak, sea (.435 road)
Phillies -- TEX, MIL (.523), sea, oak (.435)
Marlins -- SEA, TEX (.509), chc, laa (.558)
Braves -- LAA, OAK (.491), tex, cin-4 (.464)
Nationals -- OAK, SEA (.435), laa, tex (.577)

Next, I took the home and road winning percentages, multiplied by 6 games per series (or in the one case, 7), then made the home team adjustment, .48 wins per 6 games (or 1.07 wins per 7 games). This left the following indexes (based on a scale of predicted wins based on schedule strength based on 12 games.

Mets -- 3.62 home, 2.61 road, 6.53 total
Phillies -- 3.34 home, 2.91 road, 6.25 total
Nationals -- 3.87 home, 2.06 road, 5.93 total
Braves -- 3.59 home, 2.68 road, 6.27 total in 13 games (prorated to 12: 5.78)
Marlins -- 3.43 home, 2.18 road, 5.61 total

Subsituting punchless Houston for Texas, and giving the Mets the weakest opponents on the road gives them the advantage. As for the Nats, they need to take advantage of their major home advantage, because the road trip to LA/Anaheim and Texas will not be kind to them. And don't feel bad for the Marlins. They're already 3-0 in interleague, with 3 more to play against their "natural rivals", the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Let's Make a Deal

2005-06-04T22:24:00.000-04:00

As the NL East continues its tailspin into collective mediocrity, the Braves are doing their best to contribute to the near critical mass of teams hovering just barely over .500. With Mike Hampton's return to the DL, Bobby Cox was forced to call up Seth Greisinger from AAA Richmond to fill the temporary hole in the rotation. Greisinger gets the call by default, as the Atlanta minor league system doesn't boast any more major-league ready prospects. While it’s nice to see a fellow UVA Wahoo in the East, Braves fans are merely hoping Greisinger doesn't embarrass himself too badly after embarrassing stints with Detroit and Minnesota. Meanwhile, Kyle Davies continues to impress, but even four reliable starting pitchers (and putting the beleaguered Horacio Ramirez in that category is currently a stretch) may not be enough in this division. Especially with freaks who can throw 150 pitches lurking in the opponents' rotations.

Rumors continue to circle regarding Wilson Betemit's future, as some Braves fans seem to think Bobby Cox is showcasing Betemit by giving him starts at shortstop. Rafael Furcal is legitimately hurt, so this isn't a stunt, but Furcal may be hurting some more if Betemit maintains his .340/.462/.604 line.

If Betemit is dealt, this could end up coming back to bite the Braves. Furcal is a free agent after this season and is likely to command more than he is worth, and Bobby Cox's unhealthy appetite for no-hit slick-field shortstops notwithstanding (remember Rafael Belliard? Walt Weiss? Ozzie Guillen?), apparent heirs Tony Pena Jr. and Luis Hernandez are not major-league caliber prospects. Betemit is the cheapest and best in-house solution to replace Furcal. Yet with starting pitchers dropping like flies, GM John Schuerholz may panic and deal Betemit for an arm. And a certain team with a no-hit shortstop may be desperate for a bat off the bench. All I've been hearing on this blog is how deep the Nats pitching staff is . . .

What do you say, Josh? Let’s make a deal?

Statheads Screaming Edition of Nats Notes

2005-06-04T15:17:00.000-04:00

The screaming sound you hear is Baseball Prospectus writers becoming apopletic over Livan Hernandez's 150-pitch outing last night.

I was at the game last night (in 100-level Diamond Club seats as a terrific gift from my girlfriend) and was calling for Frank to pull Livan after he walked Josh Beckett, without knowing that Livan had already thrown over 100 pitches. (And I was close enough to the field for Frank to actually hear me!) But it seemed that Livan was out of steam. With some slick glovework from Nick Johnson and double-play handiwork from Livan himself, he escaped without giving up the winning run to the Marlins. But at the game, it was heart-wrenching.

With the benefit of hindsight, was it a good move for Frank to leave Livan in? Without the nifty stab by Livan in the 9th, they could have run into real trouble with the heart of the Fish's order up. The Nats have a solid bullpen, which should have been brought in that inning. We can't afford any more injuries, and 150 pitches is too much for any pitcher -- and many of them were pressure pitches with runners on base late in the game. But thanks to some sloppy Fish defense and John Riedling (!), the Nats win another one-run affair.

Some other Nats news and notes:

-- The Nats really need to pick up D'Angelo Jimenez. There were situations that begged for Frank to pinch-hit for one of the worst-hitting regulars in baseball, Cristian Guzman, last night. But he couldn't make a move, since there isn't a backup shortstop or second baseman on the roster. Signing Jimenez would allow much greater roster flexibility.

-- I said it when the trade was made, and I'll repeat it again. Marlon Byrd for Endy Chavez was an outright steal. Byrd filled capably as both Wilkerson's replacement and in the leadoff spot last night. He's hitting .348/.429/.413 in his 46 at-bats. Small sample, yes, but he's done everything asked of him. He's a hell of a lot better than seeing Endy in the 4th outfielder role, or JJ Davis or, god forbid, Jeffrey Hammonds.

-- Claudio Vargas was picked up by Arizona last night and was placed on their major league roster. The D-Backs were the one team he pitched well against. Hopefully, this doesn't come back to bite us, but with our deep pitching staff, I'm not too concerned.

-- Did you know Matt Perisho's ERA is 1.35? He's still an awful pitcher, and his stat line is close to CJ Nitkowski's in New Orleans: few hits but lots of walks and lots of luck. Ex-O and A Jim Mecir didn't have quite the ERA but his stuff was nasty last night and made Vinny look awful when he struck out.

-- As I reported back in April, assistant Red Sox GM Josh Byrnes to the Nats would be a perfect match and makes perfect sense for a group that has former Advisory Board CEO Jeffrey Zients as one of the key investors. Jeffrey Zients is to health care consulting as Billy Beane is to baseball management. No surprise that he would emerge as a leading candidate if the Malek-Zients-Powell group wins out.

-- Someone please give Martin from DCist.com a complimentary course in Economics 101. (Check out this post attributing lower DC crime rates to urban flight if you want a good laugh.) Here's a reading suggestion for him.

Finally, check out the Nationalz.com blog, now linked in the Nats blogroll on the site. It's frequently updated and chock full of posts and links.

A Day at RFK

2005-06-01T11:17:00.000-04:00

The Nats are rolling along, having won 3 in a row after last night's victory over the Braves. I was at the park on Monday, along with almost 40,000 other people to watch the exciting 3-2 victory. Just a few notes:

-- Tomo Ohka looked really good, although it's going to be hard for him to keep that up unless he strikes out more guys. That shouldn't be hard, however, as he racked up a grand total of ZERO on Monday.

-- Relying on the defense hurt Ohka in the third, with two errors, one by Carroll, which was hit hard enough that it could have been a base hit, and one by Castilla, who missed the hop as it looked like he was thinking about where to throw. After that, Ohka was lights out.

-- Cristian Guzman sucks. He left another 5 on base on Monday, although he actually got a hit in the third. His batting average is still below .200; his OPS is still below .500.

-- The hit and run doesn't work. The Nats gave away two outs on failed hit and runs with not-so-fast runners: Wilkerson and Johnson. That will hurt them if the trend continues.

-- I still don't understand the ruling on the Jordan homer-turned-foul ball.

News and notes:

Zach Day was put on the 15-day DL with a fracture in his wrist, discovered after he pitched once after the injury, and then was optioned to AAA (now retracted). It seems odd that the fracture wasn't found right away. Also, the article says that the Nats were close to trading Day -- to Cincy, maybe?

Around the web:

2005-05-27T14:53:00.000-04:00

Baseball Prospectus Triple Play hits the Nationals today. Among the interesting points: the extreme park effects of RFK so far. I figured it was depressing home runs, but didn't think it was depressing all six factors of offense (R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB). Perhaps the oddest one is walks, with a .632 park factor. Is it something with RFK's batting eye? Small sample size warnings abound here, as the Nats' anemic offense probably has something to do with these figures.

Also, Matt at Mets Geek looks at the NL East in VORP, EqA, and Win Shares. A good analysis all around.

Bulls win! Bulls win!

2005-05-27T01:47:00.000-04:00

I finally took my first trip to Durham Bulls Athletic Park to see the Bulls take on Pawtucket tonight in a AAA International League match-up. Here are some random observations from the wacky world of minor league baseball:

--It’s a beautiful stadium modeled after Camden Yards and its ilk, with a “Blue Monster” wall in left and a grassy lawn in center looking out on the meager Durham skyline. It’s also about the only sector of downtown Durham that isn’t an eyesore—yet more proof that the pastoral oasis of a baseball stadium really can outshine urban decrepitude (or the crumbling red brick remains of the Tobacco empire).

--AAA baseball is fun to watch because each team always has a handful of recognizable players who made their brief mark in the big leagues and then disappeared into obscurity. Durham is particularly rich in that department due to parent organization Tampa Bay’s continuous obsession with collecting washed-up veterans (to give the Devil Fishies that extra spark) who inevitably end up sucking their way back to the minors (Durham has only three players younger than 26). Familiar faces included Reggie Taylor, from whom I tried repeatedly and unsuccessfully to coax a baseball in-between innings, Joe Beimel, Tim Laker, and Eric Munson, who for some reason is toiling in obscurity while Travis Lee dinks the occasional single in a Tampa uniform. Pawtucket featured Dave Berg, perennially suffering exile Roberto Petagine, and former-Brave farmhand George Lombard, who apparently is alive and well.

--Cla Meredith, who logged 2.1 forgettable innings with Boston earlier this year, entered the game in the eighth inning with the bases loaded and his team up by one run. He left with his team down two after three walks, two of them with the bases full. Meredith has a funky side-arm delivery which we won’t be seeing back in Boston any time soon.

--B.J. Upton is still only 20 years old. For most of the game, he provided the only offense Durham could muster. He sparked the three-run rally in the eighth with a base-hit. He also provided the highlight of the game with a first-inning homerun, thereby setting off the mechanical bull perched above the left field scoreboard which snorts smoke and glares flashing red eyes after each Durham homer. He finished 2-3 with a walk and a stolen base. He clearly outclassed the older, more experienced competition. Does anyone really think Julio Lugo is a good enough reason to keep this guy in the minors?

--John Olerud played what proved to be his last game with Pawtucket, as he was immediately called up by the Red Sox after the game to join the team in time for the Yankees series, where he should give the ineffective Kevin Millar a much-needed reprieve. It was nice to see such an accomplished major-leaguer in a AAA game. Olerud, in typical patient fashion, walked and scored in three at-bats.

--Thanks to Upton’s heroics and Meredith’s utter wildness, the Bulls won 6-4—and I got to see the big bull smoke and seethe his red-eyed fury one last time. And, frankly, is there any sound in sports more intimidating than the furious grunting of a charging bull?

The Nats Shake-Up

2005-05-26T18:19:00.000-04:00

On the first six games of a road trip where the Nats should reasonably have gone 3-3, they stumble to a 1-5 record -- most recently a sweep at the hands of the woeful Cincinnati Reds. Some now think the sky-is-falling for the Nats, and Trader Jim has mandated a shake-up. But let's put things a bit into perspective, as we enter a tougher stretch against St. Louis, Atlanta and Florida:

-- There's been a shake-up for the better with the Nats' pitching staff. Claudio "I" Vargas started three of the six games in the series, and got shelled in every one of them. Not one of Frank's finer moments, but he's now been designated for assignment. Replacing his roster spot is TJ Tucker, just off the DL. Innings from just-recalled Sunny-Woo Kim and Toma Ohka are bound to help. Also in the mix is now CJ Nitkowski, a former Bowden draftee and long-time-ago top prospect (with Cincy and Detroit) who has been lights-out for the Pirates' AAA team and was just cut by them. Zach Day was sent down, and based on his recent performances, that can only be a good move.

The bad news is that Jon Rauch is likely out for most of the season, yet another injury in the Expos/Nats' second straight season of health woes. Still, this is an improved pitching staff. We've already had good luck with Gary Majewski and Hector Carrasco, who started out at AAA. Let's hope Trader Jim goes 3-3 with Nitkowski.

-- Jeffrey Hammonds is no longer on the team, injuring himself to the 15-day-DL in the Toronto series. Brendan Harris should be a decent improvement off the bench. Wil Cordero is also coming back relatively soon. Tyrel Godwin is also here, but will likely be sent down May 31 when John Patterson is eligible to come off the DL.

-- Cristian Guzman blows, but he's not 450-OPS bad. No one on this team has been hitting lately, and that's bound to change. One hot streak by Wilkerson or Guillen, and -- bam -- we'll forget about this hitting funk.

-- The Braves aren't that good, as Lior's been documenting lately. The Nats have a winning record (3-2) against them this season and their offense is abysmal. Furcal, Jordan, and Mondesi all have sub-.300 on-base percentages -- among the worst in the league at their respective positions. Adam LaRoche and Johnny Estrada haven't improved on his 2004 season and the only above-average hitter in their lineup is oft-injured Chipper Jones. They've had injuries to their pitching staff too, with top starters Hampton and Thomson out for the foreseeable future. Mazzone is indeed a genius, but as we know, injuries can eventually catch up to you.

I'm predicting a 5-4 stretch against the NL's best. Matt Morris (4-0, 3.50 ERA) versus Tony Armas (1-2, 5.49 ERA) tomorrow night, 8:10 p.m.

UPDATE: CJ Nitkowski has a website! Check out CJ's favorite restaurants (wonder what he'll rate the top DC eats?) And kids, check out CJ's autograph tips! I think Nitkowski's a fine short-term solution. Anyone who only has allowed six hits in 22 innings is worth a shot. (Yes, he walked nine during that period as well, not a great sign.) Maybe he'll be to the Nats in 2005 what David Newhan was to the Orioles last year.

A Rising Star and a Falling Legend

2005-05-26T00:02:00.000-04:00

Kyle Davies had another nice start for Atlanta. The kid looks like the real deal. He throws a low-to-mid 90’s fastball which is a bit straight but he spots it well, which, as Leo Mazzone will tell you, is the key to good pitching. He also packs a wicked change-up—a surprisingly mature pitch for a 21-year-old—which he used to embarrass Mike Piazza in the fourth inning with two men on base and to pick apart the heart of the Red Sox lineup last week in his major league debut. So far, so good: 2 starts, 10.1 innings, 12 K’s, no runs, 2 wins. If he can learn to keep his pitch count down, Davies should be a solid number two starter in a couple of years. More importantly and unfortunately for the rest of the NL East, he helps the Braves gimp along until Mike Hampton returns to the rotation.

Piazza, by the way, looked horrible the entire series. He fouled back several clearly hittable balls left up in the strike zone, and had some funny-looking swings on outside breaking stuff. As if that wasn’t embarrassing enough, Marcus Giles lit him up for three stolen bases—and we’re not exactly talking about Ichiro on the base paths here.

It saddens me to write this, but Piazza is no longer the type of hitter who inspires fear in opposing pitchers, nor will he likely ever be again. His OPS has steadily declined for the past five years. It’s a shame, because in his prime Piazza hit the ball harder than anyone in baseball. He was fun to watch. He’s still a first-ballot hall-of-famer, but at 36 I don’t see him turning it around. The Mets would do well to see if any AL teams are interested in a DH.

Free the Richmond Three!

2005-05-24T00:38:00.000-04:00

It's been a long time since I've posted here, but I needed an opportunity to vent and couldn't hold it in any longer. My blogs from the perspective of a Braves fan should provide loyal Nats fans and readers with plenty of optimism--if the Nats are paying attention, they better take this opportunity to gain some games on Atlanta before Schuerholz screws his head on straight again. Here goes:

When will John Schuerholz finally admit he was wrong and do something about the Braves’ horrendous outfield situation? When the Braves GM signed has-been free agents Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan to twin bargain-basement one-year contracts, no one seriously thought they would be able to replace the offense of J.D. Drew and the surprisingly productive Charles Thomas/Eli Marrero combo. But at least, so said conventional wisdom, these two formerly decent players would give the Braves a cheap, temporary patch in the outfield until better players were ready to take their place.

Problem is, the Atlanta corner outfielders have been downright horrid. Jordan, whose decrepit knees, despite his constant reassurance to the contrary, have bereft him of his former athleticism, has labored to hit a paltry .234/.282./.314. Mondesi at least has contributed a smidgen of power, but his .217/.273/.370 is not going to cut it if the Braves want to win another division title. Fourth outfielder Ryan Langerhans has also provided some pop, but aside from a torrid stretch aided by a two-homer day at Coors Field, has been unimpressive in his rookie season with an OPS of .675. And it’s not like Jordan and Mondesi are contributing much defensively or on the basepaths, were both are just shells of their former selves. When will the Braves realize that Andruw Jones and two humanoid mammals in uniform does not an outfield make?

This travesty would be embarrassing if it wasn’t for the presence of several viable in-house solutions. But the Braves’ refusal to let younger, better players get the chance to contribute is downright flabbergasting. In AAA Richmond, uber-prospect Andy Marte is hitting a solid .288/.388/.497. Marte is just starting to get hot these past few weeks, and already looks to have solved his strike-zone issues, drawing 25 walks against 30 strikeouts in 153 at-bats—a rare improvement for a player so young. The guy has blasted his way through every level of the minors against older competition and, if there is any justice in this world, should be in at Atlanta uniform no later than July. Yet the Braves' stubborn management refuses to move Marte from third-base, where he remains stuck in the depth-chart behind Chipper Jones, who isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Schuerholz has repeatedly said that things will work out in their due order, as if some stroke of providence will convince Jones to return to the outfield or turn Marte into a shortstop. It ain’t going to happen, and every day Marte plays the infield instead of learning a new position in one of the outfield corners is time lost on his inevitable surge to the majors. Even Jeff Francoeur, who should be starting in right field on opening day 2006 and for years to come, is hitting a respectable .285/.326/.492 for a 21-year-old in AA.

If Schuerholz wants to protect Francoeur, which is understandable, and Marte, which is inexplicable (he doesn’t really have anything left to learn in the minors), then there are several other viable options. Bill McCarthy is a non-prospect at 25, but he’s hit wherever he’s played and owns a respectable .301/.365/.473 at Richmond, which easily projects as superior to the paltry bat-work of Mondesi and Jordan. But the most obvious immediate solution would be Kelly Johnson, a late-developer who at 23 still has some upside and is hitting a .299/.429/.558 (an OPS which would currently place him fifth among MLB outfielders). I’m not saying that Johnson is the second-coming of Bobby Abreu, but David Dellucci with more speed seems a fair comparison. What is this guy still doing still languishing in AAA? The tyranny of veteran sinecures in Atlanta must end—cut the dead-weight and free the Richmond three!

"The Art of Poop"

2005-05-23T22:30:00.000-04:00

...yes, that's a headline for the WashingtonPost.com's unreadable blogger/columnist Jabari Asim's latest bit of "commentary." I kid you not.

Stealing the Reds

2005-05-23T18:25:00.001-04:00

Dateline: Cincinnati.

The Nationals arrive in the Queen City of the West prepped to face some of the worst pitchers in baseball and the last-place Cincinnati Reds. Yet they arrived banged up, and the Reds have just made some interesting -- if not curious -- roster moves. Roster moves that, given Jim Bowden's connection to the city, could potentially help out our Nats. Over the last two days, GM Dan O'Brien, designated for assignment two players that were expected to be key contributors to the Reds in 2005.

D'Angelo Jimenez is one of those players. He's been one of the most inconsistent players in baseball ever since his injury as a young Yankees prospect back in the late-1990s. I'm a big fan of Jimenez: in fact, I lost an infamous baseball bet with Nationals Review co-blogger Phil that he would have a higher OPS than Alfonso Soriano in 2002. That year, he hit a craptastic 330/347 (OBP/SLG) and was dumped by the San Diego Padres. In due time, however, he got his career turned around. Last season, he hit 364/394 with Cincy after posting a 349/415 mark in 2003. Not too shabby, especially with his solid defense. But just when it looked like he had gotten his career turned around, he decides to revert to old form and was hitting 229/319/295 before his release.

I agree with Chris that he'd be a sound pickup, especially given Guzman's struggles. He's still walking, he's not going to slug below .300 and according to BP's newfangled defensive stats, he has a slick glove and can play across the infield. (He even pitched once!) Surely, he's a better fit than Carlos Baerga -- if only for the defense.

Then there's Danny Graves. Graves of the 10+ ERA in May. Graves, the only MLB player to be born in Vietnam (Saigon). This is also the Graves who pitched to the tune of a 3.95 ERA last season, with only 77 hits and 13 walks in 69 innings. His season to date has been out of character. Normally, he's had pinpoint control; this season, he's been all over the place. But he's only pitched 18 innings. Maybe Randy St. Clair can pull a Loaiza out of his hat and bring out the old Graves. The Nats could use another bullpen arm, and he's been a starter in the past as well. (Not that we need another mediocre starting pitcher.)

Given that the Nats need hitting more than pitching, I'd suggest bringing D'Angelo to Washington. He might be just what the doctor ordered -- as a utility infielder.

Nats hanging in there

2005-05-20T13:15:00.000-04:00

An important road trip is coming up for the Nationals. Only 1/2 game out of first, the Nats now travel for 3 in Toronto, 3 in Cincinnati, and 3 in St. Louis. Coming away with a record over .500 on this trip would be huge going into a tough 7-game homestand with the other major contenders in the East in the first week of June. One major stat helping the Nats is that their pitchers have only given up 21 homeruns, including only 8 at RFK. Without crunching the numbers, it seems like RFK is a pitcher's park. As The Hardball Times' Studes points out, its early park factor is 91 (with 100 being average, anything below favoring pitchers). However, again, just guessing, it seems like RFK is also increasing triples.

One thing the Nats are doing well is hitting in the leadoff spot. As Baseball Crank points out, Brad Wilkerson is crushing his NL competition in the 1-hole.

Woops! Our Bad...

2005-05-15T18:39:00.000-04:00

Normally I don't get involved in the bash the mainstream media chorus of the blogosphere but there's really no reasonable explanation for this:

Newsweek magazine has apologized for errors in a story alleging that interrogators at the U.S. detention center in Guantanamo Bay desecrated the Quran, saying it would re-examine the accusations, which sparked outrage and deadly protests in Afghanistan.

Fifteen people died and scores were injured in violence between protesters and security forces, prompting U.S. promises to investigate the allegations.

"We regret that we got any part of our story wrong, and extend our sympathies to victims of the violence and to the U.S. soldiers caught in its midst," Newsweek Editor Mark Whitaker wrote in a note to readers.

So because of the mainstream media's utter incompetence at tracing a story, fifteen people are dead and Newsweek can only muster a lame apology.

Byrd Watching

2005-05-15T11:28:00.000-04:00

Let's give Trader Jim some credit here. The trade shipping off Endy Chavez. whose trade value has plummeted to near-nil since spring training, has netted the Nats Marlon Byrd.

Byrd could be considered the anti-Endy. He hit 303/366/418 at age 25 with the Phillies, as their starting center fielder. He slumped the next season in a little over 300 at-bats, but his minor league numbers give a strong indication that his 2004 was the fluky season.

At age 23 in AA, he hit 316/383/555, with 32 steals and 28 home runs. At age 24 in AAA, he hit 292/367/476 with 15 steals and 15 homers. When he got exiled back to AAA last season, he struggled a bit -- but only in 152 at-bats.

Endy had some decent minor-league seasons, but most of his ability was concentrated in his high batting average. Once pitchers learned to pitch him, he struggled -- and clealy hasn't shown much potential for improvement. Byrd, meanwhile, showed considerable secondary skills -- walks and power -- in the minors, and even has toolsy skills, like speed and defense. Byrd even outhit Terrmel Sledge at age 24 in AA; Sledge's breakout season came at age 25 in Harrisburg.

So, anyway you look at it, the trade is a steal for the Nats. With Church or Byrd, the Nats will have a legitimate pinch-hitter off the bench. And now they have a legitimate center-fielder to man the spacious RFK outfield.

Congrats, Trader Jim.

Bizarro Nats

2005-05-10T05:53:00.000-04:00

When the Nats play to win, like they did in Sunday's 13-inning loss to the Giants, umpire Charlie Reliford bizarrely allows Omar Vizquel to score on what should have been a ground-rule double and the Nats lose, 4-3. Last night, the Nats played to lose -- with D-Backs in scoring position in seemingly every inning -- and somehow they end up victorious with a 4-3 win. And now they're calling up Vargas. (No, not that Vargas.) Bizarro Nats, indeed.

They're now assured a winning record on a West Coast road trip even when our resident seer predicted four wins at best, before the recent rash of injuries. Even Barry thinks there's some Nats magic, perhaps like the "Why Not?" Frank Robinson variety of 1989.

The good news: the pitching should be getting better -- and deeper -- with Armas and Vargas coming up today. I've always thought it's better to have solid depth in a rotation than having two or three dominant starters with little insurance in the bullpen or the minors. Look at the recent incarnations of the New York Yankees: in '04, they were able to spot-start Contreras, Orlando Hernandez, Halsey and Sturtze when the rotation needed an extra arm. (Oh yeah, and Loiaza too.) This year, they've had to start Taiwanese porn star Chien-Mien Wang and anti-Bush activist/actor Sean Henn, both of whom have predictably gotten shelled.

With the activations, the Nats have nine legit starting pitchers on the staff -- a depth that not many teams can boast. I almost forgot about Claudio Vargas at season's beginning, but he's put up solid minor league numbers and, if he can throw the ball over the plate, could provide some welcome bullpen relief. Despite the D-Backs' announcers' proclamations last night, Armas isn't likely to be a Cy Young candidate. But 150 innings of 4.20 ERA ball would be a welcome relief. His return cements Day's status in the bullpen and gives the Nats lefty-less pen full of starters who can throw lots of innings.

Still, the team's bench strength at season's beginning is now looking like a significant weakness. With Sledge likely out for the season, Ryan Church will be starting -- and the way he's been playing, that's a good thing. But this also means Jeffrey Hammonds will be starting against lefties and that Tony Blanco is our fifth outfielder with the demotion of JJ Davis. There's not a single guy on the bench that I'd want pinch-hitting in a clutch situation. Baerga -- ick. Blanco -- yuck. Gary Bennett -- no thanks. I'd like to think Trader Jim has an ace up his sleeve, but the Nats may be carrying a pitiful bench for much of the season.

Basil declared the Nats' need for an all-purpose utilityman yesterday; he liked Ryan Freel in Cincy. The Nats could use David Newhan, who's currently rotting on the bench up I-95 in Baltimore. Not sure if the O's would unload him, but he'd fill a crucial need on this side of the Parkway. Another player that might become available is LA's Jason Repko, who would likely be demoted after the Dodgers get Jayson Werth off the DL. But it would be nice to see Trader Jim make one of his famous AAAA-type trades to get us a warm bat that can actually hit a longball in a pinch.

Armas versus Shawn Estes, of 2003 HACKING MASS fame tonight at 9:40. He's pitching like Bizarro Estes this year, though, with a 3.86 ERA. We'll see which Estes shows up.

Some Interesting Facts and Figures From Around the League

2005-05-05T16:53:00.000-04:00

In case you weren't paying attention, the White Sox are 21-7. They also set a recent major league record by leading at some point in all 28 of their games.

Brad Radke has walked only one batter through 50 innings.

Moneyball???:
Mark Mulder: 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA.
Tim Hudson: 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA.
Barry Zito: 1-4 with a 5.84 ERA.

Pass Some of That Lucre Over Here

2005-05-05T16:45:00.000-04:00

Wow.

U.S. Internet advertising surged 33 percent in 2004 to a record $9.6 billion, surpassing levels seen during the early Web boom, and will grow at a similar rate in 2005, according to data released on Thursday.

Picture of the Day

2005-05-03T12:13:00.000-04:00

Coming to a Nats concession stand near you?

UPDATE: Whoa! Related story here.

The Attendance Wars

2005-05-03T10:02:00.000-04:00

The Nationals are currently drawing 30,951 fans a game. There two sides to this coin. The first is that the Nationals should be happy with this result -- it puts them in the upper half of Major League Teams, as this graphic demonstrates:

Nationals President Tony Tavares also mentions some key factors as well:

"If you look at attendance in April, typically, these are your softer months," Tavares said, "because kids aren't out of school yet, the weather hasn't warmed up yet, you've still got NBA basketball going -- and frankly, it's the first time in many years with the Wizards being highly competitive. I'm not making excuses. I'm just telling you I'm very pleased with our attendance."

The other side of the coin is that the Nationals are a "new" team in the District and thus should be expected to be drawing an above average total. Ultimately, I expect the Nationals to be drawing roughly 30,000 fans throughout the season due to this novelty effect. Economists have estimated this novelty effect on attendance to last from as little as 3 years and as much as 10 years.

Using a difference-in-means approach, Quick and Fort found a novelty effect on attendance to Major League Baseball (MLB) teams to be significant after five years. Others have found the novelty effect in professional baseball at three years (Kahane and Schmanske, 1997), four years (Coffin, 1996), seven years (Quinn et al., 2003) and ten years (Coates and Humphries, 1999 and 2001).

The Nationals are fortunate in that as their novelty effect starts wearing off, they will be moving from RFK into a brand new stadium, which could possibly reinvigorate the team's novelty effect on attendance. If so, expect the Nationals to draw roughly 30,000 fans for a long time to come.

New York Times and Education

2005-05-03T00:40:00.000-04:00

I am generally not surprised when I read a completely ridiculous statement on the editorial pages of the NY Times. The Letters to the Editor tend to reflect this ridiculousness. However, in response to Bill Gates' appeal to improve high school education standards, this specific letter struck me as particularly absurd:

I am aware of the deficiencies of many of our schools. But to make preparation for the labor market the chief goal of our schools is an antidemocratic idea. It is an important goal but must be placed alongside that of preparing our children for intelligent and responsible participation in our democracy.
Narrowing down their education to a limited, technical slice of our rich cultural heritage may possibly serve market forces but does not bode well for the future of our society.

Yes, you read that correctly. Educating children for the purpose of preparing them for future employment is an "antidemocratic idea". One wonders what this reader thinks the purpose of schooling is. To learn show tunes? To learn the latest innovations of miming? To give kids something to do while their parents are at work?

JOSH adds: While the readership of the New YorkTimes definitely tilts to the left, and the letters to the editor reflect it, I don't know if this is an example of bias at all. I think the writer is probably misguided; there shouldn't be a disconnect between getting a solid liberal-arts (non-market) secondary education with getting a good job and being prepared for college or the workforce.

But Bill Gates himself leans to the left politically, and there has historically been a tension between schools providing technical education and trying to get as many kids in "college-prep" classes. I think the writer misses the point; from reading Gates, I don't think he advocates tracking kids to technical-level courses. I think they probably share the same educational values, and both (I would hope) would want to improve standards in the public schools.

Speaking of the New York Times, their sports page covers the latest Bronx shakeup -- and we're not talking about the public school system here. The 11-15 Yanks are moving Tony Womack to left field (!), Matsui to center field, and playing rookie Robinson Cano at second base. Bernie's awful center field defense is replaced by Womack's to-be shaky defense in left and Matsui's untested D in center. And Robinson Cano? He's a middling prospect, who posted a 316/403 line at age 21 in AAA. Not awful, but it's a sign the Yankees are in trouble this season.

Nats miss a shot at the sweep.

2005-05-01T23:31:00.000-04:00

Lots of things to comment on, but I'll make one point now which I expect Chris to also hit later.

Why was Luis Ayala pitching in the top of the ninth instead of Chad Cordero?

Will the Real Livan Hernandez Please Stand Up?

2005-04-30T00:41:00.000-04:00

I was at the Bobby tonight to see which Livan Hernandez would show up against the Mets. The first inning was not encouraging: Livan loaded the bases, Cliff Floyd came close to hitting a grand salami, and Victor Diaz hit a deep smash to right field, and it looked like deja Livan all over again.

But then, the old, reliable Livan returned to form and, as the SportsCenter guys like to say, scattered 10 hits in eight innings of work.

Jae Seo, on the other hand, was the Bizarro Livan, pitching like clockwork in the early innings (he retired the first 12 batters) only to give up three gopher balls, including one line shot to -- you guessed it -- Livan!

Nats win, 5-1, and stand alone in third place in the NL East.

Free Brendan Harris!

2005-04-26T17:03:00.000-04:00

Carlos Baerga has proved his sucktitude by hitting .133 (2-for-15, all singles).

It's time to see Brendan Harris, who's hitting .286/.342/.357 down in New Orleans take his spot. There's no reason that Baerga should still be having key at-bats for a major league team.

Free Brendan!

Triples Park at RFK

2005-04-25T23:24:00.000-04:00

While Phil has declared that RFK is a pitcher's park, one clear pattern has emerged from the first ten home games. RFK is also a triples haven.

Witness last night's tough 5-4 loss to the Phillies, where Jose Vidro, Brian Schneider and the Phillies' Jose Offerman all tripled. The Nationals hold the major-league lead with 11 triples -- 3 ahead of the Houston Astros. Outfielders, like Bobby Abreu last night in the 8th against Vidro, seem to have trouble manning the RFK outfield. The park effects are greatly decreasing the home runs, but increasing some odd extra-base hits.

Some other game notes:

1. I've gotta disagree somewhat with Chris about the potential usefulness of Joe Horgan as a left-handed reliever. Before 2003, his minor league ERAs were mediocre; he has a career 4.77 ERA in the minors. This guy isn't major-league ready, and left-handed setup men define fungibility.

2. Frank Robinson's lineup tonight is one I hope remains for the foreseeable future. With OBP giants Wilkerson, NickJ and Vidro at the top of the lineup, there should be many runners on base for Guillen, Castilla and Sledge. The offense was slumping last week, but I don't see this as a significant long-term problem -- as long as Frank uses an optimal lineup, like the one he's used for the last two games.

3. Pinch-hitting Gary Bennett against Billy Wagner in the 8th was one of Frank's "hunch" moves. Bennett hit the ball hard, but right to the left fielder. It's easy to second-guess, but I would've preferred seeing Schneider up there in the clutch.

4. Jon Rauch has finally been freed from the minors, after throwing three consecutive dominant starts in New Orleans. Aside from the Offerman triple, he pitched very well and should hopefully earn a spot in the rotation alongside Tony Armas when he returns from the DL.

5. After last Sunday's ad in the Washington Post, I've gotta say I'm rooting for Comcast in the television wars. What a smarmy and sloppy piece of PR from Peter Angelos. I don't think a swift resolution was in play even without a lawsuit, and this provides the Nationals an opportunity for a much more equitable resolution -- assuming Comcast wins the lawsuit. There's no way I'm pulling for this sloppily-produced MASN network to air the Nationals ad infinitum.

Meanwhile, I got to hear the dulcet tones of Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea tonight while watching yet another ESPN broadcast of our Nats. If it wasn't for the damn three-second delay, it would've been an ideal viewing experience.

My Experience With ESPN

2005-04-22T16:50:00.000-04:00

While I was only featured briefly in the story (I was the tall dude in the blue shirt and blue Nationals hat walking or standing with Josh in 3 or 4 of the shots), I still loved the whole ESPN experience. ESPN's film crew had filmed about 10 hours of footage total, and edited all this tape into a 3 and a half minute piece. Needless to say, many of the shots we thought or hoped would make the cut did not.

Nevertheless, I thought the segment was excellent, and we all took particular pleasure in being told we needed to "get a life" by Jim Palmer. It was definitely one of the funnier moments of recent memory. I'd like to thank the crew guys we met who did an amazing job and who were just fun to hang out with when the cameras weren't rolling. It's more difficult than you'd think to act as if you're not on camera (since it was often right next to our faces), but the crew really helped us make the transition and I think everything went pretty smoothly.

Baseball Roundup: Tough Loss to Take

2005-04-22T10:28:00.000-04:00

While Josh and I, along with some friends, got to see the Nationals game live followed by an ESPN camera crew, the Nationals still blew the lead in the 9th inning with 2 outs on Christian Guzman's throwing error to 1st in the sloppy field conditions.

Beltway Baseball on ESPN

2005-04-22T02:04:00.000-04:00

Phew! What a long day.

I'll post more in detail about my long day working on the Beltway baseball segment with ESPN, but it was a terrific experience. The producer Artie Berko and the camera crew were all class acts, and put together an oustanding piece.

I had a wireless mic on me throughout the DC baseball and Baltimore games, baseball fans in DC and Baltimore gawked -- assuming they were watching celebrities -- as the camera crew followed every step we took at both ballpark. We got our message loud and clear out that Angelos is an arrogant jerk, and I said on-air: "Screw Baltimore."

When I have a chance tomorrow, I'll expound on this amazing day. The piece on Sportscenter originally aired at 11:53, but for the West coast and morning editions, they've pushed it up somewhat. Jim Palmer, in a fancy job of editing, even told me in the piece to "get a life" for catching two baseball games in the day. What a dope.

Anyways, more updates to come but it was one hell of a day of baseball -- even though the Nats lost in painstaking fashion. (They didn't show the shot of my head buried in my face after the Guzman error.)

Baseball Roundup: Zach Saves the Day

2005-04-20T23:02:00.000-04:00

After dropping their last two games, the Nationals turned to Zach Day, who returned to the starting staff from a recent demotion to the bullpen. Day didn't disappoint, tossing seven shutout innings against the Braves to get the Nats back on track.

FYI

2005-04-20T16:33:00.000-04:00

There is a very strong likelihood that Josh and I will be featured in a story on Thursday's late night edition of Sportscenter. From what we understand, the story will involve the new cross town rivalry of the Nats and the Baltimore Orioles. Expect much Peter Angelos bashing.

More details to follow as they come along...and no, this is not a joke.

Josh Byrnes, Next GM of the Nats?

2005-04-19T17:23:00.000-04:00

The Boston Globe runs a story today about Red Sox assistant GM Josh Byrnes and, in passing, mentions him as a possible successor to Trader Jim once the Nats get real ownership. Byrnes is a local guy and a disciple of the stat-based analysis that we touch upon here, and has become so popular -- and deservedly so -- in baseball. Here's the money bit:

But Byrnes is so self-effacing that there are entire precincts of New England unaware that as assistant general manager of the Red Sox, he is Theo Epstein's most valued aide, and even less aware of the possibility that Byrnes could surface as a leading candidate to become general manager of the Washington Nationals once that team is sold by Major League Baseball, which could happen this summer, by the end of the year at the latest.

"He's a key voice in player personnel," Epstein said this spring of Byrnes, 33, whom Epstein hired away from the Colorado Rockies Dec. 7, 2002. "He's got as much a feel for evaluating and statistical analysis as anyone in baseball. He writes great reports, he has great people skills, and he'd probably be a general manager by now if he were better at self-promotion."

Byrnes, who grew up in the Washington, D.C., area and attended prestigious St. Albans School, is part of that young class of rising baseball executives that includes Epstein, of course, but also Mark Shapiro, Dan O'Dowd, Paul DePodesta, and Dan O'Brien, all of whom are now big-league general managers and all worked under John Hart in Cleveland's golden age of the '90s. Byrnes came to the Indians in 1994 as an intern to Shapiro, after running into Mark's dad, high-powered agent Ron Shapiro, at a Haverford (Pa.) College alumni game, where Byrnes was captain of the team and set school records in home runs and RBIs.

This is the first mention of a Byrnes-Nationals connection that I've seen, and I think it's a great sign. The local ownership group, Washington Baseball Club, have some real savvy and innovative businessmen -- read: Advisory Board CEO Jeff Zients -- and would likely be very open to the kind of effective stat-based analysis that the Red Sox, Dodgers and A's openly embrace.

Add a shrewd GM to the young talent the Nats already have, and it's a potent combination. Keep in mind that Angelos was not interested in hiring shrewd Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta after firing Syd Thrift a couple years back. The Nats could really dominate the Orioles if a new owner recruits Byrnes away from Boston.

UPDATE: The link above was screwy -- it's now been fixed.

Early Season Thoughts

2005-04-18T20:14:00.000-04:00

1. The Marlins might have one of the best starting rotations of the past decade. Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Dontrelle Willis were all top notch prospects, and all of them are gradually fulfilling their potential. (Burnett was already there, but suffered through the always laborious Tommy John surgery). Then throw in the reliable veteran Al Leiter and a serviceable 5th starter (currently Brian Moehler) and you have the makings of a truly elite staff. One shudders to think how good the team would be if it had retained Carl Pavano.

2. Why didn't anyone predict the White Sox' sucess? I'm a guilty party to this oversight as well, but in hindsight it should not be all that surprising that a team with two aces (Mark Buerhle and Freddy Garcia) and two Cuban legends (Orlando "el Duque" Hernandez and Jose Contreras) would, at the very least, stack up with the underwhelming AL Central. Add in Jon Garland, who epitomizes the very concept of being average (a more than welcome attribute for a 5th starter) and you have the makings of a good if not great team.

3. The Yankees - the only comment I have here is that I'm glad I'm a Nationals fan now.

Sweep!

2005-04-17T18:36:00.000-04:00

With Sunday's 7-3 victory over Arizona, the Nats now stand at 8-4, on a five-game winning streak, and are in sole possession of first place, with the possibility of a two-game lead if Philadelphia beats Atlanta tonight.

OK, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

The division is still strong, and everyone's been beating up on each other, contributing to the fact that the entire division except for the Nats could be .500 after tonight. All four of the other teams in the division have looked impressive at times, including against the Nats. The Marlins have given up...wait for it...25 runs in 12 games. 2 runs per game. That's just nuts. (For those of you scoring at home, that's 4 shutouts, three games giving up 2, one giving up 3, and four giving up 4.)

Looking at the Nats, the first impression is that Vinny Castilla is making all his doubters look silly. He's hitting .429/.487/.857, and didn't make an out in RFK until the second inning today. That said, I feel the need to invoke Voros' Law before anyone gets too crazy: Any major league hitter can hit just about anything in 60 at-bats. The same is true for Cristian Guzman and his .114/.167/.136 line, and although he won't be that bad, he still shouldn't be hitting anywhere but eighth, RBI walk be damned. (And after the swing on 3-1, I was shocked that he took ball four, too.) 2-hitters can't be seeing less than three pitches per plate appearance.

Florida's in town the next two days, with a rematch of the 9-0 loss on April 8 between Tomo Ohka and Dontrelle Willis on Monday. Willis has NOT given up a run this year, but that can't last. Then Tuesday is Livan! versus Brian Moehler, who pitched decently against the Nats last time save for two 5th-inning homers. Probably will see a lot of Florida's bullpen in this game.

That Sheffield Story OR Why Karl Ravech is Probably Satan

2005-04-15T18:48:00.000-04:00

Is it just me or is the Gary Sheffield-fan "fighting" incident getting the most press coverage for a complete non-story in say...the past decade?

Ok good, it's not just me. I was watching Baseball Tonight last night too Basil and while Karl Ravech was already one of my least favorite anchors at ESPN, I think we should start a petition to have him fired now. Who's in?

PS I'm only kidding...sort of.

Speaking of Bad Post Writers...

2005-04-15T16:43:00.000-04:00

there's the fashion columnist Robin Givhan, who had the audacity to mock Dick Cheney's clothes at a Holocaust remembrance ceremony and now thinks John Bolton's haircut is grounds to disqualify him as U.N. ambassador?

Well, Robin, here's some advice, via Bill Quick: practice what you preach. (Note to Basil: if Holly Morris isn't cute, you'll be scared to look at Ms. Givhan.)

Less Les Carpenter Please

2005-04-15T15:21:00.000-04:00

The Post hired an extra reporter from the Seattle Times named Les Carpenter to contribute to an online-only MLB Insider and provide some legwork to Barry during the Nats games. Kind of like a newspaper version of Samantha Ryan, without the eye candy.

Well, this could be one of the Post's more unimpressive hires.

He wrote a rambling, poorly written ode to RFK Stadium in yesterday's Post.com for his debut MLB online column. In today's print Post, he errantly refers to Vinny Castilla's 131 RBIs last season with the Braves. Maybe I'm just being a nit-picky jerk, but if you're going to write a column exclusively focusing on baseball, shouldn't you know/do the research to where Vinny played last season? And shouldn't it be pretty darn obvious that for Castilla to hit 131 RBIs, it would have to be in Coors Field?

Among his more charming leads was this other story about the RFK exhibition:

The walk to the clubhouses at RFK Stadium is fraught with peril to millionaires' ankles. Ooops! That doorway drops three inches to the hallway below. Look out! No one has repaved the pathway between clubhouses in probably four decades and now it's a moonscape of dips, bumps and broken concrete.

That's the first ever spelling of "Oops" with three o's, according to LEXIS-NEXIS and it's one of the few articles with oops! in the lead paragraph.

I'm probably being too rough on the new beat reporter; I once received a nasty note by Post intern (and now KCStar sports reporter) Jeff Passan for criticizing a poorly-written Orioles game story on my old blog. But we've been spoiled with St. Barry Svrluga and Orioles beat reporter Jorge Arangure, Jr. -- another outstanding hire. They both know baseball, and are skiled writers and reporters. Dave Sheinin is pretty solid, as well.

Here's hoping Carpenter's only in a Cristian Guzman-like slump, and can start rapping out copy like the other pros at the Post.

Thoughts from the Opener

2005-04-15T12:17:00.000-04:00

One word: wow!

1. The game could hardly have been better. Keep in mind, Livan Hernandez had not allowed a single ball out of the infield through eight innings and Vinny was one single away from the Nats' second cycle in as many weeks.

The pre-game ceremonies were fantastic. I didn't hear a single boo for President Bush, and he threw a nice high-and-tight fastball to Brian Schneider. It was a genuinely moving moment to see the old Senators hand over the gloves to the new Nationals. And you gotta love old PA announcer Charlie Brotman, whose voice (albeit hard to hear with the mediocre acoustics) bubbled with excitement as he introduced the D-Backs and Nats.

2. What I've noticed is a real disconnect between the sports media elite and the new Nationals fans. Even with international media coverage, the only local sports radio station couldn't bother to set up a live remote over at RFK for the pre-game festivities. They devoted more attention on their Thursday morning roundup to the Wizards than this historic return of baseball to RFK. The hosts take pride in their ignorance of who's on the Nats, and unlike their incessant coverage of all things Skins, they didn't provide any additional coverage for the Nationals. To them, it was just another day. It was a disgrace.

None of the local outlets which, to their credit, provided all-day coverage, managed to show all of the pre-game festivities. Jim Vance on Channel 4 can bash baseball all he wants, George Michael can offer his erroneous information, but it was a shame that this wasn't deemed worthy for (at least Channel 4) to go to live.

Clearly, the reaction among the Nats fans and faithful was clearly different. RFK was a-rockin', cheering even equipment manager Mike Wallace when introduced, booing Lance Niekro when he plunked Castilla in his attempt for the cycle, and the place was literally shaking when Ryan Church caught that final out to preserve the win for Livan! I've been to at least 50 Orioles games and, even against the Yankees during the O's heyday, I've never seen such crowd enthusiasm. Perhaps it'll wear off, but I have a gut feeling that we'll be seeing a lot of near-sellouts and boisterous crowds throughout the season.

3. Lots of Blackberrys, I think we should rename the field Blackberry Field at RFK.

4. FOX News correspondent Major Garrett was sitting up in the nosebleeds with me, and was one of the most enthusiastic fans out there. He sported an oversized Nats t-shirt and he was jumping and screaming with the rest of them. I saw Jack Evans with his family on the way out; he got a terrific reception. He's one of the few Council members who really deserves his seat, and deserves a mountain of credit for his efforts to bring baseball in DC.

5. Don't buy Larry Bowa's nonsense on ESPN about how the Nats have a good team but don't have any depth. As mentioned here before, they are one of the deeper teams in the NL East both offensively and pitching-wise. Sledge may be the best pinch-hitter in the division and Jamey Carroll could start for that D-Backs team. Plus, the Nats have eight legitimately serviceable starters -- when Armas went down, it hardly affected us. Day's in the bullpen now, but John Patterson's more than an adequate replacement.

6. The lines at some concession stands were ridiculous, but not that many people seemed to care. Some fans waited almost five innings to get their chicken tenders. It would have been nice to have better audio in the concourse, or at least some TV screens. Hopefully, those kinks will be worked out in time.

Nats are in first place in the National League East, with a 6-4 record. If the Redskins started off 6-4, all you'd be hearing is wall-to-wall boosterism. Now that da Nats are off to a promising start, I hope we'll get better and more informed coverage.

Either way, it's a start of a new era in Washington -- we're a big league city once again!

An Interview With the Prez

2005-04-15T11:32:00.000-04:00

The Washington Post had an interesting interview with President Bush on the Nationals and Major League Baseball. Bush said that he played no role in bringing the Nationals to town despite being a huge baseball fan.

Bush said that despite his influence in both national politics and baseball's power structure, he never got involved in Washington's long-running pursuit of a major league team. He said he believes publicly funded stadiums -- such as the one being built in the District, and the one built for his ownership group in Texas -- can have beneficial effects for cities.
"I viewed [Washington's pursuit] as a local matter that would have to be decided by local opinion makers, local editorialists, and most importantly the local elected officials," Bush said. "In our case [in Texas], we actually had an election to determine whether the local people wanted to spend money to build a stadium -- we had a specific referendum, a vote . . .
"So I'm mindful of the local nature of franchises and stadiums. And I never had any intention whatsoever to butt in, or wade in. I did follow it, because I'm interested in baseball. And I think it is good for baseball to come back to the nation's capital. I believe the demographics have changed enough, and hopefully the [new] stadium will accommodate the increased population in the region .

He also discussed the possibility of expanding baseball's fan base in the inner cities which is certainly something baseball should be aiming to do but has failed at in recent years. The whole interview is worth a read, so take a look.

So How Will RFK Play?

2005-04-14T22:47:00.000-04:00

Will it be a hitter's park? A pitcher's park? Of course, we can only speculate since the first game was just played today. However, we can make some informed deductions. Here's a look at the dimensions for RFK stadium:

The first thing that comes to mind is that the depths at centerfield and down the lines are pretty standard. However, note that it's 380 to the left field power alley and 390 to the right field power alley. As a basis for comparison, here are the dimensions for the Atlanta Brave's Turner Field.

No, these pictures are not the same. Turner Field and RFK have the exact same dimensions. Check it out for yourself.

As this ballpark scoring comparison shows, Atlanta's Turner field tends to be more friendly to pitchers than to hitters. Considering that RFK has the exact same dimensions, it would be fair to conclude that RFK is likely to be somewhat friendlier to pitchers in general. However, winds at RFK do tend to be quity gusty so this has to be considered as well.

Overall, the Nationals may end up giving more runs than the average team, but this will likely be due to inexperienced pitching rather than a hitter friendly ballpark.

As someone who prefers a great pitching duel to a home run derby disguised as a baseball game, I for one am very happy with the dimensions and the new park in general.

Baseball Roundup: Opening Day!

2005-04-14T22:37:00.000-04:00

The Nationals kicked off their much anticipated return to the nation's capital with a 5-3 victory over the Arizona Diamonds.

It's Finally Here!

2005-04-14T10:56:00.000-04:00

Opening Night is in nine hours, and I will be sitting in the upper deck, first-base side, watching our first-place Nationals try to give ex-Expo Javier Vazquez his third consecutive drubbing.

I got up early to watch Fox5's morning news show coverage of the Nats opener live from RFK, and was it godawful but, at the same time, exciting to watch. They have a reporter there, the Murrow-award winning Holly Morris, who either downed a ton of coffee early this morning or was on crack. She interviewed some of the NatPack -- the Nats fan club -- and was so hyperactive, she was incoherent. She reminded me of a cuter version of Molly Shannon's Mary Catherine Gallagher character on SNL.

But still, I enjoyed watching her antics. Baseball's back in Washington and I couldn't be more excited. Despite Toma Ohka's wildness, Jose Guillen ensured the Nats come home with a winning record after playing three tough division rivals.

Play ball!

Uh-oh Ohka

2005-04-13T14:35:00.000-04:00

Tomo Ohka's line so far today?

Six walks in less than 5 innings. But he still has a 4-3 lead.

Updates to come..

Website News

2005-04-13T14:29:00.000-04:00

As our readers have discovered, our "Daily Roundup" section is not being updated daily. Unfortunately, as we are not a major website, we are unable to gurantee that one or all of us can post something on any particular day. For instance, our router was recently down which prohibited posting recently at our "central location", i.e., our apartment. Thus this feature will continue and will be updated as regularly as possible, but we are unable to update it on a daily basis.

Please give us your feedback so far on this feature in the comments section if you have the time. Do you prefer we focus on game related pictures? Or do you prefer pictures related to behind the scenes stories, such as the recent post on Rick Ankiel?

And as we try to make the site more interactive in general, please leave us any general feedback in the comments section as always. We appreciate our growing readership and are sincerely interested in looking into and posting subjects that might be of interest to you.

The Comeback Nats

2005-04-13T10:12:00.000-04:00

Didn't see that one coming, did you?

Down 3-1 in the 9th, the Nats strung out three hits, two walks and three key runs off Braves' closer Danny Kolb and closer Chad Cordero finished off the Nats' 4-3 comeback win. I'm sure Brian Schneider will be Ryan's Nat of the Day, but Nick Johnson continues to impress with good patience -- his OBP is well over .400 early on.

Do you want to know how despicable some of the anti-new ballpark council members are? Some are boycotting the historic Nats opener over those political differences. I'll give Adrian Fenty a pass, since he says he had a scheduling conflict. (Ha!) But David Catania is simply a jerk. He told the Post:

"At this point, it's hard to get enthusiastic about baseball . . . after the way that Major League Baseball shoved that deal down our throats. I find it really hard to cheer for . . . an organization that would take such disadvantage of the District of Columbia."

Grow up, Catania.

Finally, check out the article by Barry Svrluga about the history of Presidents throwing out the first pitch here in Washington. And, while you're at it, check out his online chat over at the Post.com website.

Orioles Schadenfreude

2005-04-11T00:25:00.000-04:00

No, I'm not one of those Nats fans who hates everything about the Orioles. At the same time, it's not fair to call me an O's fan. On one hand, I like seeing them knock off the Yankees and they're still my favorite team in the AL East. But I'm also satisfied that their pattern of making awful moves seems to be biting them back.

On Friday, Denny Bautista -- who was traded last season for Jason Grimsley! -- pitched dominantly against the Los Angeles Angels. His line? 8 innings, three hits, no walks, eight strikeouts.

And today, Matt Riley, who was dumped in the last week of spring training, pitched well for the pitching-starved Rangers today, earning the win against the Seattle Mariners.

A Week of Ups and Downs

2005-04-10T23:47:00.000-04:00

Two tough losses to the Marlins this week, but the Nats finish a challenging road trip with a .500 record and a chance at first place for our home opener against the D-Backs, with a sweep of los Bravos. The Nats avoid John Smoltz's 15-K ability but will have to face Hudson, Hampton, and Thomson down at Turner Field.

Good things first: John Patterson was outstanding today, despite being tagged with the loss. Patterson's stuff was always deemed top-prospect worthy, but he'd been a consistent underachiever. Until the 7th inning, he was ahead of most hitters, having even the Marlins' best slugger (Cabrera) flailing like Cristian Guzman. Not to sound like a broken record, but -- if all goes well -- our pitching could be ridiculously deep this season. We'll see how Rauch does in New Orleans and how quickly Armas can rebound from his injury, but after the first week we haven't seen any clunker performance from our rotation since Livan! flamed out on Opening Day.

Wilkerson is easily my new fave Nat. He's hitting .440 with what looks to be outstanding defense in centerfield. Jose Guillen is mashing the ball too, but has yet to walk. Vinny Castilla has been impressive early on, too.

On the downside, Guzman has been horrible, hardly getting a single ball out of the infield so far this season. And the bullpen has been less than encouraging, with Antonio Osuna looking more like the Nats' batting practice pitcher, not the vaunted setup man Trader Jim thought he signed. I can't get too excited when Joe Horgan and T.J. Tucker arrive from the 'pen, either. And F-Rob's passivity might hurt the team in the long-run. Guzman's isn't patient at all, swinging at the first pitch in situations demanding the count gets worked. F-Rob's response, in Mike Wise's column Monday?

Some players can hit late in the count. Some players cannot hit late in the count. I'm not going to force a player to work the count and make him take pitches early in the count or take strikes, and try to get a walk or get in a more-desired hitters' count if he's not comfortable. Why try to force that on them?"

Not exactly the stuff you want to hear from a guy paid to coach.

That said, I've been quite impressed with his willingness to tinker with the lineups, and moving Guzman to the 8 hole. In Baltimore, these types of common sense moves took months, if not years, to make in the purgatory of the late-90s. It took just three games for him to move the slow but patient NicktheStick in the two hole -- and it should pay dividends.

Finally, I wanted to add a bit to the Baseball Prospectus rants that have occasionally emanated from Ryan and Basil. The BP folks, once they create a "formula," have a hard time reconciling any contrary evidence that goes against such formula. This is especially true for PECOTA, and it's near-hilarity when they project Magglio Ordonez's performance in 2010, and make some definitive statement about his contract value.

So it's especially hypocritical to see Nate Silver's creation of a formula measuring contract value last week. And guess who came out with the best contract this past offseason? Cristian Guzman. Nope, I'm not shitting you. And it doesn't stop there, apparently the Nats' had the best offseason of any team in all of major league baseball! So what's Nate's response, seeing this goes against BP dogma:

Cristian Guzman is not who I'd have guessed would have topped the "best value" list. However, he does have three big things going for him: he's young for a free agent, he's a shortstop who plays his position very well, and he was signed for a relatively modest amount. This does not mean that Guzman is a good player, or that he has an especially favorable projection; he's been worth about 18 wins over the four previous seasons, and PECOTA expects him to be worth slightly less than 15 wins over the four seasons to come. But it does mean that he's a reasonably good value, especially when compared to someone like Orlando Cabrera. If there's a problem with the signing, it's not that Guzman's was a bad contract on its face, but rather that it's with the wrong team--the Nationals aren't well positioned to take advantage of the three or four extra wins he'll give them.

and..

Which teams had the best and worst winters?
Nationals +$20,557K
Dodgers +$17,261K
Blue Jays +$13,243K

Mariners -$14,468K
Diamondbacks -$16,461K
Tigers -$35,955K

If they treated this flawed statistic with the same amount of adulation they did with the equally-flawed or misused PECOTA, they'd have to retract all their snarky Nats' comments and bow at the feet of Saint Trader Jim. But Silver doesn't even have time to comment on the alleged wisdom of the Nats' offseason moves.

I've been a long-time fan of Prospectus, but it's become increasingly obvious to me that they're blinded by the same type of arrogance and short-sightedness the mainstream sports media was for years. I re-upped for a month with them after not renewing my subscription earlier. It just isn't worth it. Save your money and read the more humorous, more informative and free Nats blogs instead.

The New NatCast

2005-04-10T23:40:00.000-04:00

Since last week, I've been browsing the various weather sites looking for weather information for Thursday night's home opener. Now a team of local weather experts at Capitalweather.com are making the task easier for me and other Nats fans by providing exclusive Nats' weather forecasts with their Natcast:

Beginning Thursday, we will provide forecasts for Washington National home games (the day of). As a sneak preview, I would expect cloudy conditions and a chance of a little drizzle, with temperatures holding in the mid 50s during the game.
There's still a bit of uncertainty with respect to this forecast and it will be fine tuned as opening day draws closer...

Not an ideal Opening Night forecast, but it doesn't look like it'll be rained out, either.

Daily Roundup: Willis Baffles the Nats

2005-04-09T00:55:00.000-04:00

Dontrelle Willis was up to his old tricks, shutting out the Nats, as the Marlins won 9-0.

More Nats Coverage

2005-04-08T19:29:00.000-04:00

I think the Washington Post is doing a bang-up job with its Nats coverage. This is a great article on VIPs complaining about their seats, including half the panelists on Crossfire, the illustrious Jim Moran, and David Brooks. And as the article notes: If you want to yell at Paul Begala, that's Section 209, Section 2-0-9.

Meanwhile, the Nats TV "deal" got a boost with the next nine games beaing aired on UPN. This isn't a big hit, because, despite the protestations of the UPN affiliate, who watches UPN primetime programming?

Oh, right. Me.

Division game tonight. Tomo Ohka versus Dontrelle Willis. In other division news, 0-3 Mets at 2-1 Braves and Philly is rallying in the top of the 9th down 1 in St. Louis.

UPDATE, 7:34 PM: Charlie Manuel pinch-hits Kenny Lofton for the 3-4 Jason Michaels with 2 outs and the bases loaded. And he strikes out. Phils are now 1-3.

Daily Roundup: When Pitchers Go Bust

2005-04-07T00:18:00.000-04:00

One time uber-prospect Rick Ankiel was placed on unconditional waivers by the Cardinals and not a single major team considered him worthy enough to claim. Ankiel was subsequently signed to a minor league contract by the Cardinals and will be converted to an outfielder. Ankiel's once promising future is looking very bleak.

Wilkerson hits for cycle as Nats win.

2005-04-06T22:29:00.000-04:00

Nats win! Nats win!

Brad Wilkerson hit for his second career cycle, the first coming in 2003 at the expense of the Pirates. The last Expo cycle was in August 2003 by Vladimir Guerrero; the last by a "Washington" player was Jim King in May 1964, the club that became the Rangers.

Wilkerson is now one shy of the all-time record for cycles, 3, shared by Babe Herman and Bob Meusel. 18 other players (by my count) have hit for two, including Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, George Brett, and the illustrious Cesar Cedeno. (Let them play! Let them play!)

B-Wilk Hits for Cycle

2005-04-06T21:58:00.000-04:00

How 'bout that! "The Wilk," as Charlie Slowes likes to call him, hit for the cycle in the Nats second game.

Feel free to comment below.

NL East Bloggers Roundtable

2005-04-06T10:38:00.000-04:00

Nationals Review recently participated in a NL East roundtable at MetsGeek, discussing the Nats with our rival fans to the north.

Check it out.

Daily Roundup: Smoltz the Starter Suffers, Struggles

2005-04-05T21:40:00.000-04:00

John Smoltz's return to the starting rotation ends in failure, as Smoltz gives up 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings and the Braves fall 9-0 to the Marlins.

Daily Roundup: Not a Good Day to Be a Mets Fan

2005-04-04T19:30:00.000-04:00

In a new daily feature at Nationals Review, we're picking the picture that best illustrates the day in baseball.

In Cincy, Pedro strikes out 12, Beltran hits a homer, and the Mets still lose, 7-6 -- thanks to Joe Randa's game-winning solo shot.

Phil's Predictions

2005-04-04T18:53:00.000-04:00

They're not worth much, but here's my 2 cents:

Before I begin, you'll note that a lot of my picks are kind of forgotten old favorites. A lot of these players seem to have gotten lost in the shuffle for one reason or another.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez. This guy is simply too good not to win. He is the best overall player in baseball hands down, and I expect a monster year coming from him now that he has had time to adjust being Derek Jeter's sidekick.

AL ROY: Nick Swisher. Moneyball was written in large part about Nick Swisher. 'Nuff said although Dallas McPherson is a strong runner up candidate.

AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay. Remember him? He was injured last year but is far and away the best pitcher in the AL. Now that he's healthy again, there is no reason he shouldn't regain the Cy Young crown.

AL Breakout Star: Rich Harden. This guy throws 100 MPH. And he has great control. Look for Oakland fans to slowly forget about the Big 3 and start thinking about the Big 5 (aka Barry Zito, Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Dan Meyer)

NL MVP: J.D. Drew. Normally this would automatically go to Bonds - Barry Bonds. However, with Barry injured for at least a month, look for J.D. Drew to carry the Dodgers offense into the postseason and barely edge Albert Pujols for the MVP crown.

NL ROY: Chris Burke. This is a very weak year for the NL ROY candidates so I'm going with the unspectacular yet steady and consistent Burke.

NL Cy Young: Josh Beckett. Again, anyone remember this guy? The one who shut out the Yankees to end the 2003 World Series? Well it's time. This guy has arguably the best stuff in baseball. He's underperformed every year since he started and only showed glimpses of his potential greatness in the 2003 postseason. Look for the still very young Beckett to grow up and break many bats in the NL this year.

NL Breakout Star: Chin-hui Tsao. If you don't know this guy yet, you should. He'll been tagged as the Rockies closer this year, and while he is playing in the unfriendly confines of Coors field, some scouts say this guy has better stuff than Eric Gagne.

AL Champ: New York Yankees. While my personal affinity for the team has gone down significantly since last year, they are the best team in the AL on paper. And as we'll find out over the course of the season, they are the best team on the field as well.

NL Champ: St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals made it to the World Series last year. Since then, they have added perennial Cy Coung candidate Mark Mulder to anchor the staff. Thus this is an easy pick.

World Series Champ: St. Louis Cardinals. This offense is just too impressive and their pitching is significantly improved with Mulder. 2005 is their year.

Nats Announcing Crew

2005-04-03T22:08:00.000-04:00

... will be Mel Proctor and Ron Darling.

Wow, nice picks. It's hard to find a really good TV crew, but Proctor was great as the Orioles lead announcer in the 1990s. I've never heard Darling on the air, but he is a Yale graduate so he should, at the least, make smarter musings than Rob Dibble.

Season Preview, Part I

2005-04-03T19:11:00.000-04:00

Here are the ten questions that all Nats and NL East fans need to know for the upcoming season, cross-posted on MetsGeek:

1. Flashback to October. The season has just ended. What should be on the Nationals to do list? (via trades, acquisitions, promotions, non-tenders)?

The Nats' biggest weakness was at third base, where Tony Batista recorded one of the worst full-time on-base percentage for any regular last year. I would have focused on signing a quality third baseman, a la Troy Glaus, and keeping Maicer Itzuris, who was later packaged with Juan Rivera for Jose Guillen. (And I wouldn't have signed Cristian Guzman or Vinny Castilla, whose combined contracts approximate that of Glaus' deal with the D-Backs.)

Offense was clearly the problem for the Nats last year -- and heading into 2005. The team had a really nice core of skilled young hitters: Brad Wilkerson, Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro and Termel Sledge. Getting league-average players at the other positions would have been a priority. Under a Nationals Review regime, Endy Chavez would have been shipped out to a team (perhaps with another SP like John Patterson), to a speed-hungry team like the White Sox. I'd try to swing a Chavez-Paterson for Carlos Lee deal; if not, I would've tried to pry a Damaso Marte and/or Juan Uribe from the South Siders. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, and Endy's trade value has regressed since the start of spring training.

2. What were the best and worst moves of the Nationals offseason?

Best move: Bowden's restraint in not trading Nick Johnson or Termel Sledge this offseason. One of them will have a breakout year in 2005.

Worst move: Signing Vinny Castilla to the two-year deal. It's not disastrous, but Brendan Harris was a ready replacement for Batista and Castilla's primed to flop next season.

3. Evaluate the Nationals lineup, bench, rotation and bullpen:

The biggest potential weakness for the Nats is their lineup. But since demoting "Inning" Endy Chavez to AAA New Orleans, the offensive future looks a bit brighter. Nick Johnson, Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge and Jose Vidro are all prototypical players that stat-analysts love, and will likely all be starting for the Nats. They walk a ton, are young enough to improve (with the possible exception of Vidro) and don't receive the same attention as bigger-market players of their caliber. And Jose Guillen, while not a big walker, should produce handsomely out of right field.

Still, some dead weight in Castilla and Guzman could weigh down the lineup. I don't expect much out of Castilla; Guzman, on the other hand, is 27 and has had several productive seasons earlier in his career with the Twinkies. By virtue of not playing Endy, general improvements from the heart of the order, and the automatic upgrade from the 2004 Tony Batista, this team's offense won't be great -- but the Nats' offense won't be the league's bottom-feeder, either.

The rotation is very deep and very underrated. Three guys were once, recently,
among their former team's top prospects: Tony Armas, Jon Rauch and John Patterson. Livan is a legit ace, and Ohka and Day have put up very solid numbers at times over the past few years. Health has been an issue for the pitching staff in the past, but if they stay off the DL, the Nats' rotation could be one of the best in the division. I'll take the Nats' #6 and #7 starters, John Patterson and Jon Rauch, over any of the drek the Mets have been scrambling for in their attempts to replace the injured Steve Trachsel.

The bullpen is headlined by Chad Cordero, the young fireballing reliever who took over the closer's job to replace Rocky Biddle last year. With Antonio Osuna as a setup man, it's a decent 1-2 punch. The rest of the pen is a mixed bag: Joey Eischen, TJ Tucker, Luis Ayala and Joe Horgan are all no better than average. Perhaps one has the potential to surprise.

One of Bowden's offseason priorities was to add to the team's offensive depth. He did a surprisingly good job with that. Termel Sledge, who would be starting for most teams, is the team's fourth outfielder and only left-handed hitter on the bench. Jamey Carroll is a jack-of-all-trades utility infielder with an adequate bat. Tony Blanco, a Rule V draftee from the Reds, shined in spring training, but he won't be around too much. Accused wife beater Wil Cordero and Pirates castoff JJ Davis, are the last two guys off the bench, and they're more than adequate as pinch-hitters.

4. Who are the Nationals' top prospects?

Not many. The team's best prospect, Mike Hinckley, is one of baseball's best pitching prospects. He got shelled in spring training, and needs a lot more minor league seasoning. Bill Bray was a top draft pick from William and Mary who shows a lot of promise, but he's at least two years away.

Brendan Harris was acquired in the Nomar-Cabrera deal last year and should've been the team's starting third baseman. He could be a league-average hitting third baseman,but he's already 26 and doesn't have that high of a ceiling.

Ryan Church will likely be the Nats' center fielder, and was named the team's minor league player of the year in 2004. He's a good defender, and can hit a bit. Expect a .340/.440 type season from him, splitting outfield duty with Sledge.

5. What are the Nationals' top goals for 2005?

The biggest goal for the Nats is to secure and grow an already-large fan base, and to contend in the tough NL East. If the Nats sell 3 million tickets and win at least 75 games, the season will have been a huge success. I think the likelihood of both happening is quite good.

NL East:

1. Which team had the best and which had worst offseason?

The Mets improved themselves the most this offseason, adding Beltran and Pedro. The Phillies had a quiet offseason, but made a very significant acquisition in ace Jon Lieber.

No teams in the division had a bad offseason, but I think the Braves hurt themselves by not finding an adequate replacement for J.D. Drew. Getting Tim Hudson was great for them, but I don't think he'll be enough to allow the Braves to maintain their unprecedented run of NL East titles.

2. What was the best move in the division? What was the worst move?

Best move: Mets signing Pedro Martinez. In the NL, he'll rebound to his peak form.

Worst move: Nationals signing Vinny Castilla. Totally unnecessary, and he'll struggle to be above replacement level in 2005.

3. Which team has the best: starting rotation, lineup, bench, bullpen?

Best rotation: Marlins. They've battled injury problems, but is this the year when AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Al Leiter terrify NL East bats?

Best bullpen: Phillies. With Billy Wagner back and Ryan Madson primed to be a force in the pen, the Phils outdistance a mediocre bunch of relievers in the NL East.

Best lineup: Phillies. Top to bottom, the Phils can score a bunch of runs. An Abreu-Thome-Burrell-Utley heart of the order is damn good. They also have very few holes: David Bell and Kenny Lofton, the two worst hitters in the lineup, could be league-average at their positions.

Best bench: Nationals. There's no better bench player than Termel Sledge, and JJ Davis could be another solid pinch-hitter. Wil Cordero and Jamey Carroll are both nice utility players to have around the bench. What was a miserable bench in 2004 could now be the division's strongest.

4. Who is the best rookie in the division?

I don't know if he still counts as a prospect, but David Wright is easily the best in the division. Relievers Ryan Madson of the Phils and Chad Cordero of the Nats also fit in that rookie/second-year purgatory, but they should both shine.

Among "true rookies," watch Ryan Langerhans, who may get some playing time in the corner outfield spots for the Braves. He's been a decent minor-league hitter, and may be key to Atlanta's success. Ditto Ryan Church for the Nationals. Heck, I'll go with Church as the division's top rookie.

5. Who will win the NL East this year?

This should be a very competitive race. I like the Phillies, since they have the fewest black holes of any lineup, the best bullpen, and a deep-enough rotation. All five teams -- even the Nats -- have a shot. The Mets will disappoint yet again, with Benson, Zambrano and Ishii all flaming out -- counteracting the positive gains of Pedro. The Braves need to replace the bat of JD Drew and the arm of the 2004 Jaret Wright, andI don't think they did enough by just adding Hudson and Danny Kolb. Florida has great pitching, but has some truly awful guys in the lineup and have precious little depth.

Lieber was exactly what the Phils needed; he'll be the reason why the Phils will edge out Atlanta for the NL Eat title.

2005 Exact Predictions

2005-04-03T18:35:00.000-04:00

Last season, I started my own tradition of putting up a set of predictions with exact records. You can see those here and my recap of the predictions here.
This year, I've had another excuse to make these exact types of predictions, with an entry in the Baseball Prospectus Predicatron.

So, here goes, going west to east for a change of pace.

AL West: Oakland 90-72, Los Anaheim 88-74, Texas 87-75, Seattle 78-84

Analysis: Oakland's still got the horses. Harden's going to break out this season, and Blanton, Haren, and Meyer will be good enough to keep the A's in games, which will be enough for the A's offense, bolstered by Kendall, more from Crosby, and continued production from Chavez. The Angels will come up just short; I don't trust their pitching. Texas will prove they're not a fluke. Seattle still isn't that good, even with Beltre and Sexson

AL Central: Minnesota 93-69, Cleveland* 90-72, Detroit 80-82, Chicago WS 72-90, Kansas City 61-101

Analysis: Minnesota knows how to win the division, and they have Johan Santana. Period. Cleveland is ready to break out, and Millwood will have a bounceback season. The Tigers are going to continue to build on last year's momentum and will push at .500. The White Sox are trying to play small ball in a home run park. I also consistently underpredict the White Sox. Kansas City is just awful.

AL East: Boston 94-68, New York Yankees 86-76, Baltimore 77-85, Tampa Bay 77-85, Toronto 76-86.

Analysis: Boston is the class of this division, they're deep in hitting and pitching. The Yankees are going to fall apart, too old, and Wright and Pavano are going to have ERAs in the high 4s. Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Toronto are just fighting for third, but they're all a little better, and will fight for .500.

NL West: Los Angeles 91-71, San Diego* 89-73, San Francisco 80-82, Arizona 74-88, Colorado 58-104.

Analysis: J.D. Drew and Derek Lowe will live up to expectations, in a tight race with San Diego and your 2005 NL Cy winner, Jake Peavy. I really like both of these teams. San Francisco is going to struggle without Bonds; this prediction could probably go 15 games in either direction depending on his return. Arizona's transactions won't do much, but they'll improve because they can't get any worse. Colorado is playing for 2006.

NL Central: St. Louis 96-66, Milwaukee 83-79, Chicago Cubs 81-81, Houston 75-87, Pittsburgh 72-90, Cincinnati 66-96.

Analysis: St. Louis is going to run away with this division. I really like Milwaukee's young pitching in Sheets and Santos, plus Doug Davis, and Carlos Lee is going to have a monster year. The Cubs simply aren't that good, especially since Wood or Prior will go down with an injury. Houston, despite Josh's protestations, are much much worse than last year, and I like Chris Burke. But the pitching behind Oswalt isn't going to hold up. Pittsburgh should be better, with Oliver Perez, Jason Bay, and Craig Wilson, but then they do stupid things like batting Tike Redman third (career OPS: .713). Cincinnati has no pitching, and that includes Eric Milton, who will have his ERA balloon in the Great American Ballpark.

NL East: Atlanta 88-74, Florida 86-76, New York Mets 82-80, Philadelphia 81-81, Nationals 79-83.

Analysis: The Braves should win this division. Again. It'll be even though, and I'm not as confident of that pick as I usually am, when I'm going against conventional wisdom by making it. Florida should be in the mix with their young pitching, as will the Mets with Beltran and Pedro, as well as a full season of David Wright. Philly should underachieve again, despite another big season from Jim Thome. The Nats will be better than people think, and will look towards .500 for most of the season, but the flaws of being the ex-Expos will doom them in the end to the basement.

Division Series:
Boston over Cleveland in 5, Oakland over Minnesota in 4.
St. Louis over San Diego in 3, Los Angeles over Atlanta in 4.

Championship Series:
Oakland over Boston in 6, Los Angeles over St. Louis in 7.

World Series: Los Angeles over Oakland in 7.

Analysis: The DePodesta vs. Beane World Series wasn't planned, but doing it series by series, that's just how it worked out.

Better With Age?

2005-04-03T13:43:00.000-04:00

Jack Curry wonders if a growing crop of future Hall of Fame pitchers are getting better with age. It is quite remarkable that a pitcher like Roger Clemens, a man who nearly retired last year to be with his family, went on to sign with the Houston Astros and go 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 218 Ks in 214.1 innings. These numbers would be remarkable for a man in his prime, but are unheard of in previous generations for a man at Clemens' age.

It should also be noted that these Herculean feats are not limited to the pitching side. After all, 46(!) year old 1st baseman Julio Franco is still going strong for the Atlanta Braves.

More Season Previews

2005-04-03T00:16:00.000-05:00

This one is from Baseball Think Factory (nee Baseball Primer).

I'll have my predictions up tomorrow.

Preview of Season Preview

2005-04-01T12:46:00.000-05:00

Ryan and Chris have already begun their season previews and predictions. We will be posting our predictions this weekend.

However, I'll start a bit early by picking my four most underrated teams in baseball. Since I've read a whole bunch of season previews now, I feel that several teams are really getting the shaft.

1. Houston Astros

I don't understand why the commentariat thinks the Astros are doomed. This team is likely headed for second place in the NL Central and still have the key components that have made them successful over the years -- with some nice younger complements. Outfielder Jason Lane and 2B Chris Burke are among the top ML-ready first-year regulars in the game. Lance Berkman's one of the best hitters in the league, and outside of Brad Ausmus, they don't really have many weak spots. Their new GM, Tim Purpura, is a great front-office talent to ride the ship.

And I'll take a rotation of Clemens-Oswalt-Pettite with Brad Lidge closing over the Cubs' oft-injured duo of Prior and Wood for 2005. They have two of the best pitchers in the National League, the best closer, and one of the best hitters. The idea that the Milwaukee Brewers -- much improved, I admit -- will have a shot at knocking off the Astros is a pipe dream. I think the 'Stros will easily outdistance the Cubs for second and make a strong wild card run.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Yes, I'll admit that some of their offseason moves (or attempted moves), were a bit strange. But this is a team that won 93 games last year, and doesn't seem to be in worse shape. Their rotation, if healthy, is very deep: Penny, Weaver, Lowe, Odalis Perez with Edwin Jackson and Wilson Alvarez waiting in the wings. They've got a top-notch closer in Eric Gagne and a likely first-tier 8th-inning man in Yhency Brazoban.

J.D. Drew is a legitimate star who should easily replace Adrian Beltre's production in the lineup. Jeff Kent is a solid improvement over the handy Alex Cora. Jose Hernandez is more than adequate at the hot corner. And I think we'll see much improved production out of Hee-Sop Choi in 2005. (Unless he suffers from the same underachieving malady as recently traded closer Byung-Hyun Kim.)

This is about a 90-win team, and I think that's good enough to win the NL West. They'll easily pass the geriatric Giants and should inch out the underachieving Pads.

3. Washington Nationals

No, this isn't a playoff team. But the Nats have a decent heart of the order from NickJ-Guillen-Vidro-Wilkerson. If the some of the Nats' young pitchers live up to their original expectations and/or stay healthy (Armas, Rauch, Day, Ohka, I'm talking to you), I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nats even hit above .500.

If not, I still think this team easily wins 75. Now if only we have a full TV contract.

4. Oakland Athletics

There's been some split conventional wisdom on the state of the 2005 A's. The statheads like 'em, the rest of the media think they're in for a downfall. I'm always skeptical of a team depending on promising rookies to step up. And the A's really are counting on guys like Haren, Meyer and Blanton to fill out their rotation. Odds are they'll be a bit disappointed, especially given that the spring training performances of the latter two have been poor, to put it mildly.

Still, the team's bullpen is very deep -- with Kiko Calero, Octavio Dotel, Huston Street, and Juan Cruz among others. And their offense should see a decent spike for 2005: Kendall, Ellis/Ginter and even possibly rookie Nick Swisher should represent big improvements over their 2004 predecessors. Also keep in mind the A's rotation wasn't all that great in 2004 and they still won over 90 games.

In my mind, the A's are still miles ahead of the revamped Mariners and pitching-desperate Rangers. The Angels will provide tough competition, but I think the A's could win the division by a larger margin than the Angels squeaked by last year.

Book Club

2005-03-31T18:18:00.000-05:00

I'm in the middle of reading Andrew Zimbalist's May the Best Team Win: Baseball Economics and Public Policy. It's an excellent read if you like baseball and have any interest whatsoever in public policy or economics. It goes over a whole host of familiar issues to baseball fans such as public financing of stadiums, baseball's anti trust exemption, issues of competitive balance (perhaps Bud Selig should take notes), and labor issues such as collective bargaining and the powerful player's union.

I recommend our regular readers pick up a copy and take a look. You might even learn something you didn't know about relating to baseball. Plus it's not particularly friendly to the aforementioned "Dark Lord", Commissioner Selig. I'm sure I'll be referencing sections of the book in future posts.

Picture Time

2005-03-31T16:26:00.000-05:00

Spanish Socialist prime minister Jose Luis Zapatero enjoyed his trip to Bogota very much, especially upon meeting Colombia's ambassador to Spain:

!Ay caramba!

Why It's Great to be a Nats Fan

2005-03-30T22:41:00.000-05:00

Basil of Nationals Inquirer wrote another one of those great stream-of-consciousness, personal entries today about leaving his Orioles fandom behind in favor of our Nats. I feel exactly the same way: I loved the mid-90s teams managed by Davey Johnson, featuring Moneyball-type players like Brady Anderson, Bobby Bonilla and, of course, Cal. But, I haven't really been much of a true fan since ex-GM Syd Thrift dumped valuable veteran commodities for, literally, nothing. Remember the damaged goods of Luis Rivera? (Ed: Hey, he has a career MLB ERA of 1.23!) Lesli Brea, anyone? (To be fair, Thrift did get Melvin Mora -- accidentally, I think -- in the Mike Bordick deal, which turned out to be a real heist.)

But I've lost some interest in the Orioles not because they sucked hard for the last six years, but they've shown no indication in building a winning franchise. Whatever Thrift's merits, he was clueless in the modern front office, frequently mocked by other GMs and O's fans alike. (Some prank caller on a Baltimore talk show convinced him that Howard Stern's producer was a top minor league prospect in the O's system.) And they're just not a fun team to watch. Last year, I held out some hope with the slew of young pitchers they had, but Ainsworth is another Luis Rivera, Matt Riley also got injured, John Maine lost his luster and Erik Bedard is far from a sure thing. Furthermore, they traded one of their brightest young arms, Denny Bautista, for setup man Jason Grimsley. Grimsley could have the honor of being traded for two ace pitchers -- if Bautista lives up to his potential with the Kansas City Royals.

Anyways, I always expected the Orioles to screw up. It was a franchise without a vision and in many ways still is. But in a week where the Orioles made another classic bonehead trade, giving up Matt Riley, still with loads of potential for Ramon Nivar. Ramon who, you ask? He's a 25-year old OF who hit 264/290/374 in hitter-friendly Oklahoma City last year. He makes Tyrel Goodwin look like Jim Edmonds.

Yesterday, the Nats' brain trust made a move the Orioles rarely would. They cut Inning-Endy in favor of guys who can actually hit. They understood that leadoff hitters actually need to get on-base. (The Orioles never understood this in 1995 with the Curtis Goodwin experiment.) And even though I disagreed with the Castilla signing, the Nats will have tons of young, high-potential players that will be loads of fun to watch. Boz is right: the Nats have some classic Moneyball-type players. Wilkerson, Vidro, NickJ, Sledge, and even someone like Church take lots of walks, hit for good power -- and are underrated since they played in Montreal. And I haven't even mentioned their deep pitching rotation, which I think can be the surprise of the NL East.

This team will be a helluva lot better and more exciting than any of the Orioles teams, 1998-2003, and I'm stoked for Opening Day. This whole Peter Angelos brouhaha, which now appears to be over, has increasingly estranged me from my former team. I just bought Opening Night tix to the Nats -- the first-ever Opening Day/Night game that I've ever been to. I couldn't be more psyched about the Nats.

Sorry Baltimore, but I'm a full-fledged Nats fan now -- and proud of it.

More on Endy Chavez

2005-03-30T00:40:00.000-05:00

Much like Josh, I also feel it's a good thing, and a good sign that Endy Chavez was demoted instead of Ryan Church. That's because Chavez is really bad. Career .303 OBP bad, with no discernable power. His only asset is his speed, and he's only passed the break-even point of 75% (as established in this article) once in his career. A few more Caught Stealings and even that value is gone to nothing.

Of course, Cristian Guzman is certainly not the answer, he of the (wait for it...) .303 career OBP! Guzman should really be hitting eighth. I could see an argument for hitting him seventh and Church behind him so he can get acclimated to the majors at the start of the season, but that's about it.

I'd like to see Nick Johnson hit leadoff. His only major problem in his early career has been injuries, but his career Isolated Discipline (OBP-AVG) is .117, a ridiculously high total. This would keep Brad Wilkerson down in the order, allowing his big hits (73 extra base hits last year) to drive in lots of men.

NEWSFLASH: Endy to AAA, Church to CF

2005-03-29T18:19:00.000-05:00

Well, the unthinkable happened just now.

The Nationals demoted Endy Chavez to AAA New Orleans. This likely means Ryan Church will start in center field. Perhaps Termel Sledge will get some playing time in center as well.

This is undoubtedly good news for the Nats' offense, and gives me a glimpse of hope towards the Bowden-Robinson brain trust. The Nats will have to find a new leadoff hitter, with Brad Wilkerson and Cristian Guzman mentioned as the most likely possibilities, according to Svrluga's Post article. I'd go with Vidro at leadoff; he's got decent speed and very good on-base percentages. I'm surprised he's not mentioned among the list of Potential Nats Leadoff Hitters.

In other news, Jon Rauch and Gary Majewski -- two Nats I'd fully expected to make the 25-man roster -- were demoted. The staff is now set with 11 pitchers. The rotation features Livan, Ohka, Loaiza, Day and Patterson. In the bullpen are: Cordero, Osuna, Tucker, Ayala, Eischen and Horgan.

Baseball and Steroids

2005-03-29T15:32:00.000-05:00

I'm not one to provide tons of links since other Nats bloggers -- like Capitol Punishment, District of Baseball and Nats Inquirer -- do the best job in that respect. But today there were two outstanding columns on the steroids issue that I would consider must-reads for intelligent discourse on the topic.

The first is from the incomparable Alan Schwarz, on ESPN.com, about the ridiculous suggestion that home run statistics should be asterisked.

Jayson Stark writes the second piece, which surveys general managers and statistical analysts around the game, in search of some actual evidence of the effects -- or relative lack thereof -- that steroids had on the game.

These two pieces alone are infinitely more valuable and educational than the mounds of bloviating from commentators immediately after the steroids hearing on the Hill. Kudos to Schwarz and Stark -- two of the finer baseball columnists in the media.

Armas to 15-Day DL; Nats Roster Near Completion

2005-03-28T15:00:00.000-05:00

The Nats' 25-man roster is closer to completion, with the recent injuries of Alex Escobar and, now, Tony Armas, Jr. The Nats placed Armas on the disabled list today, raising worries that his off-and-on again injuries are now on again. He strained his groin in Sunday's 9-4 loss to the Mets and will likely miss at least four starts. John Patterson seems to have edged out Jon Rauch for the fifth rotation, although both pitched miserably in replacing Armas yesterday. Patterson got the neat stat line of the day. He struck out eight batters while giving up four runs in his three-inning stint.

Here's how the 25-man roster will likely look, with the injuries:

C (2): Schneider, Bennett
IF (6): Johnson, Vidro, Guzman, Castilla, Cordero, Carroll
OF (5): Wilkerson, Inning-Endy, Guillen, Sledge, Davis
SP (5): Livan!, Day, Loaiza, Ohka, Patterson
RP (7): Cordero, Osuna, Ayala, Eischen, Rauch, Majewski, Tucker
DL (2): Armas, Escobar

UPDATE: Nationals Inquirer blogger par-excellence Basil comments below that Armas may be back before the Nats need a fifth starter, according to initial reports. However the recently-updated MLB.com article disputes the diagnosis, and quotes Bowden saying Armas will miss his first four starts. Not a good sign for him.

Credit Card Hoaxes

2005-03-28T11:13:00.000-05:00

If you were ever worried about credit card fraud, well then this shouldn't help your peace of mind at all.

But at least it's funny.

Day Makes Rotation

2005-03-23T12:03:00.000-05:00

... and other assorted Nats notes:

1. So, it's official. Zach Day, fresh off his five-inning shutout performance against the Astros on Saturday, will be the Nats fifth starter. Jon Rauch and John Patterson appear headed to the bullpen, which would likely mean that the Nats are only bringing 11 hitters up north with them. Without Gary Majewski.

2. MLB is tantalizingly close to reaching an agreement with Peter Steingelos, according to Jim Williams in the Examiner. The agreement sounds good for baseball fans, at the least. CSN would carry both Nats and O's games, and other Nats games would appear on a local DC affiliate. The network would not be controlled by the Orioles, thankfully.

3. Trader Jim is inquiring about St. Rey Ordonez's services. Yes, the Ordonez with the career .289 on-base percentage. Ugh.

Season Previews are Rolling In

2005-03-22T16:17:00.000-05:00

Today's Nats preview comes from Craig Burley of The Hardball Times and the excellent Blue Jays blog Batter's Box. (He's also kicking my butt in Yoni Cohen's bloggers bracket challenge, but that's irrelevant.) Being a bitter Canadian mourning the loss of the Expos, there's some resentment there but it's a pretty good read.

I'll try to keep track of other Nats team previews around the Web as they start rolling in.

Nats News

2005-03-22T14:34:00.000-05:00

1. The Nats get to keep Rule V draftee and former first-round pick Tyrel Godwin in their organization, by offering up A-ball pitcher Aaron Wideman to the Jays. Wideman, 21, threw only 40 innings last year, put up very impressive numbers -- low WHIP, and a microscopic ERA. Godwin's upside is likely to be a pinch-runner type with some contact ability, a la Brian Hunter. And he's already 25.

The Nats have a surplus of 4th outfielders, with JJ Davis, Ryan Church and Alex Escobar all on the 40-man roster. I don't see why they need to trade away a guy who has some potential with a minor league bust who has already flamed out.

2. Baseball writers are finally getting around to the notion that the Nats pitching -- especially with their depth -- is a strength, not a weakness. Svrluga, who's a great beat writer, caught onto this theme yesterday. A few weeks ago in the Examiner, Phil Wood came up with a similar diagnosis. This is in stark contrast to the original CQ -- based on the pitchers' won-loss records -- that pitching would be a weakness for the 2005 squad.

3. Finally, Barry Bonds may be out for the entire season -- sounds like part injury, and partly because he's sick of being lambasted by the media. Developing...

"Matsui Embodies The Yankee Ideal"

2005-03-20T16:32:00.001-05:00

Tyler Kepner of the NY Times hits the nail on the head with an article on Hideki Matsui that is in part praise of Matsui's mystique and achievements since joining the team in 2002 and in part recognition of the Yankees dwindling mystique. Money quote:

As Matsui enters his third season with the Yankees, the striking thing is how seamless his transition has been. As much as any player, Matsui embodies the Yankee ideal, an identity that seems to fade with each mercenary who enters the clubhouse.

I don't recall ever referring to the Yankees as mercenaries, but as the recent trade for the 41 year old Randy Johnson proved, the Yankees no longer have the mystique that helped them propel them to the top. The dynasty that existed from 1996-2000 is virtually unrecognizable outside of Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.

Waxman's Pot Calling His Kettle Black

2005-03-19T01:44:00.000-05:00

It only took one day for Rep. Henry Waxman (D) to become a full-fledged hypocrite. After abusing his Government Reform Committee's powers to subpoena baseball players in the steroid show trial, he unequivocally opposes subpoenaing Terry Schiavo's family to testify before Congress. His reason?

"These subpoenas are a flagrant abuse of power," Waxman said. "Congress is turning the Schiavo family's personal tragedy into a national political farce."

Around the NL East: Second Basemen

2005-03-18T20:28:00.000-05:00

Josh K has asked me to do a preview of the NL East's second basemen. I feel this is one of the more even positions in the division, and I in no way feel like these are the definitive rankings. Feel free to disagree, as I doubt that these will hold up throughout the season; it's just how I feel as a snapshot today.

Previous installments: Catchers, First Basemen

1. Marcus Giles, Atlanta Braves (2004 line: .311/.378/.443)

Giles is the class of the division at this position. Only 26, he's still on the upswing, especially if he can put together a full season. Not that it's necessarily his fault, as he's collided with first Mark Prior in 2003, and then Andruw Jones in 2004. Unless, of course, you think colissions are recurring injuries. I expect Giles to bounce back to close to his 2003 line, with 100 runs, 20 homers, and over a .900 OPS.

2. Jose Vidro, Washington Nationals (2004: .294/.367/.454)

Vidro had a poor season last year by his standards, especially after signing a 4 year, $30 million extension before the 2004 season. His year was cut short by a knee injury, which he had surgery on and seems to be fully healed. Barring injury, he'll probably hit .300 again. I don't think he'll ever get back to 20 homers (he's only passed this once, in 2000), but he should hit about 15, and maintain a decent walk rate to get his OPS above .850 and become one of the Nats' best and most popular players.

3. Kaz Matsui, New York Mets (2004: .272/.336/.396)

I expect Matsui to make leaps and bounds this season as he finally adjusts to major league pitching, much like his namesake across town (Hideki's OPS: 2003, .788; 2004, .912). The move to second base and the addition of a real first baseman, Doug Mientkiewicz, should keep him from focusing on his defense when he's at bat. And he did go 14/17 on stolen bases last year; if he keeps that pace up, he'll be effective that way, especially if Willie Randolph lets him run a little bit more.

4. Luis Castillo, Florida Marlins (2004: .292/.373/.348)

Castillo can do three things well, hit for average, play defense, and steal bases. And the third is questionable, as he only has a 72% success rate, including a ghastly 53% in 2003. However, if he can repeat his 21/25 performance of 2004, he'll be useful attempting steals. I expect Castillo to be fairly consistent, and hit .300 with next to no power, and some speed and defense. Where he ranks is more a function of everyone else on this list.

5. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Philles (2004: .266/.308/.468)

It's not that Utley's bad, but he's got the least experience of everyone in the division, with 267 ABs being his max in a season. He's also not the best second baseman on his team, but Placido Polanco, who accepted arbitration to stay with the Phillies will be the utility man, at least until David Bell gets hurt. Utley's probably good for 20 homers in a full season, but he probably won't get his average over .280, and his walk rate is not so good. He's only 26, and was a well-regarded prospect, so I expect him to move towards the top of this list in the next two or three years

Steroid Hearings and Channeling South Park

2005-03-17T19:10:00.000-05:00

So I watched most of the Congressional hearing on baseball and steroids at work today. Lots of bloviating Congressmen from both parties. Indiana is clearly a hoops state -- Reps. Mark Souder (R) and Clinton-hater Dan Burton (R) made some of the most idiotic statements in their questioning of the players. So did Moonbat Dennis Kucinich (D), when he asked Sammy Sosa a question in Spanish; he sounded like I did in Spanish 1. What a joker.

On the players side, Mark McGwire came across horribly, robotically repeating "I don't want to talk about the past" whenever questioned about any question about steroid or supplement use. He's not that bright (maybe the steroids affected his intelligence) and I almost felt sorry for the guy. Still, I couldn't stand his blabber about starting some group that will help educate kids about steroids. Does he really mean that? It's just so cheesy and irrelevant.

I've always liked Curt Schilling, especially since his support of President Bush on Good Morning America back in October. He did an outstanding job responding to questions at the hearing, and made unintelligent and unprepared Congressmembers like Linda Sanchez (D) and Patrick McHenry (R) look like dopes.

It's really hard to root for people at this hearing. I've always been a big fan of Committee Chairman Tom Davis, but this hearing is pure grandstanding. I''ve been a frequent and consistent basher of Bud Selig and his cronies, but I've actually been inclined to hope they handily outdebate the know-nothing Congressmen. Some Congressmen who I generally agree with politically have made inane comments. And others who I couldnt be further from politically (see Socialist Bernie Sanders' comments) actually made sense. And I can't stand the ignorance and dopiness of Mark McGwire and loathe Jose Canseco. I've only been impressed with Curt Schilling and Rafael Palmeiro, who both came across as authentic during the questioning.

Finally, I've gotta end with this quote from McGwire, when asked what he thought about steroids. As some have mentioned before (Will Carroll, Baseball Primer) it sounded channeled from South Park:

Steroids is bad.

"A Blow to the Integrity of Baseball"

2005-03-17T11:44:00.000-05:00

The steroid abuse hearings on Capitol Hill are already off to a very interesting start with Senator John McCain now claiming he was duped by Major League Baseball.

"I can reach no conclusion, but that the league and the players union have misrepresented to me and to the American public the substance of MLB's new steroid policy," the Arizona Republican wrote to baseball commissioner Bud Selig and union head Donald Fehr.

Gentleman, start your engines. The fireworks have just begun.

Meet the Colonials

2005-03-17T11:29:00.000-05:00

The NCAA tournament starts today in full force when Kentucky tips off against Eastern Kentucky in the Austin regional. GW's Colonials were the only local team to make it into the bracket, and they open up tomorrow night against Georgia Tech in Nashville at the Gaylord Entertainment Center.

That's right. The Gaylord Entertainment Center. Which reminds me of this classic conversation from "Meet the Parents":

Delivery Man: Gaylord M. Focker?
Greg Focker: That's me.
Jack Byrnes: I thought your name was Greg.
Greg Focker: It is.
Delivery Man: That's not what it says here.
Greg Focker: Gaylord is my legal name. Nobody's called me by it since third grade.
Denny Byrnes: Wait a minute, so your name is Gay Focker?

Social Security Reform and its Consequences

2005-03-17T10:51:00.000-05:00

Former head of the Council of Economic Advisors Gregory Mankiw lays out a persuasive case for Social Security reform in the New Republic.

Meanwhile, National Review columnist Ramesh Ponnuru details the possible consequences of the plan.

Dream Class

2005-03-15T12:20:00.000-05:00

Once upon a time when I was a high school senior, I visited Tufts University and wanted to enroll there. I was summarily rejected by their admissions office, and attended the illustrious American University in Washington, DC -- alma mater of three of the four Nationals Review bloggers and NBA star Kermit Washington. (Lior, you can enjoy the aftermath of the Pete Gillen firing and take solace that your alma mater made it to as many NCAA tournaments as American U.)

I haven't thought much about the Boston-area school until I came across this course in their American Studies department: The Analysis of Baseball: Statistics and Sabermetrics. The syllabus includes course headings such as: "Case Study: Mazzone Effect" and "Give Jeter Some Love." Baseball Prospectus and Moneyball are among the required reading for the class.

Maybe AU should expand their own academic offerings to include baseball. Just a thought...

Scalia Speaks Out

2005-03-15T10:37:00.000-05:00

Justice Antonin Scalia gave a speech last night at the Woodrow Wilson Center on judicial activism.

"If you think aficionados of a living Constitution want to bring you flexibility, think again," Scalia told an audience at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. "You think the death penalty is a good idea? Persuade your fellow citizens to adopt it. You want a right to abortion? Persuade your fellow citizens and enact it. That's flexibility."
"Why in the world would you have it interpreted by nine lawyers?" he said.

While Scalia and I may have personal differences on many issues, I have great respect for him. Reading a Scalia dissent is always fascinating, as many of even his most ardent critics agree. It is clear that Scalia has a complete understanding of the purpose of the Supreme Court.

Scalia is one of the notable exceptions on the Court in that his dissents or opinions of the court are an exercise in humility rather than contempt for the legislative process. Perhaps the other Justices should consider emulating his simple concept that legislators legislate and interpretors interpret laws rather than make them.

Time for Term Limits?

2005-03-15T00:47:00.000-05:00

Is it time for term limits for Supreme Court Justices? While I believe this would require some kind of change in the Constitution, I am starting to fall into the "yes" camp. It has become increasingly clear (and somewhat shocking) that some Justices either do not understand, or worse, simply do not care, what their role is as a Supreme Court Justice. The Court is the judicial branch of the federal government and as such is responsible for interpreting the law. Unfortunately, as the recent Roper vs. Simmons case showed, some justices have even gone as far as using international opinion to interpret the American Constitution. (ed. On a personal note, I am against the death penalty for juveniles, but that is beside the point).

The Supreme Court has gradually morphed into a quasi executive/legislative hybrid. Occasionally, it will literally legislate from the bench, forcing the executive branch to execute laws created in the judicial branch. Considering that judges are not elected but are appointed, considering term limits for them might not be such a bad idea.

Angelos' Fatwa II

2005-03-14T21:47:00.000-05:00

It's become clear that Peter Angelos is engaging in some serious hardball tactics (pun intended). As Josh's earlier post indicated, Angelos is trying to turn local baseball teams into monopolies. While these kinds of tactics are normally highly illegal under various US anti-trust laws, perhaps a bad example was set by the fact that Major League Baseball is exempted from these anti-trust laws, establishing it as a legal monopoly, all courtesy of the US government.

This could make the upcoming steroids hearings very interesting. The chairman of the House Committee, Tom Davis, has declared that if any player does not show up, there could be a House vote to determine whether they are in contempt of Congress. The penalties for this contempt could include a revocation of the federal anti-trust exemption for baseball. Baseball Prospectus provides a very interesting look at the possible consequences were such a revocation to occur.

UPDATE from Josh: Tom Boswell, no fan of Angelos, pens a terrific screed against him in tomorrow's Post. It's Tuesday's early must-read.

The Arab Street

2005-03-14T16:45:00.000-05:00

From today's AP wire -- live from Beirut:

Hundreds of thousands of opposition demonstrators chanted "Freedom, sovereignty, independence" and unfurled a huge Lebanese flag in Beirut on Monday, the biggest protest yet in the opposition's duel of street rallies with supporters of the Damascus-backed government. . . .

A line of people in the square carried a 100-yard-long white-and-red Lebanese flag with the distinct green cedar tree in the middle, shaking it up and down and shouting, "Syria out."

Protesters chanted "Truth, freedom, national unity!" or "We want only the Lebanese army in Lebanon!"

"Syria out, no half measures," read a banner, borrowing from President Bush's description of Damascus' gradual withdrawal from this country of 3.5 million.

Peter Angelos' Fatwa

2005-03-14T15:48:00.000-05:00

BallWonk has the best take on Peter Angelos' advertisement to Nats fans in the Washington Post. Angelos is responsible for holding up a Nats local TV deal, potentially preventing fans from seeing the opener April 3rd against the Phillies.

My best guess is that something will be worked out between MLB and Angelos this week. Baseball certainly realizes that DC is indeed a big-league city, and they would land a big PR hit if the Nats games weren't televised by the opener.

When the Nats first came to town, I expected to retain my O's fandom. After all, they were the only team that I've rooted for since I started following baseball. But now, I'm not so sure. Angelos is single-handedly ensuring that I'm not going to be heading up to Camden Yards at all in 2005 -- and beyond.

Oh Canada!

2005-03-14T15:41:00.000-05:00

Matt Labash dubs Canada the "Great White Waste of Time" in today's edition of the Weekly Standard, and describes our neighbor to the north as:

docile, Zamboni-driving people who subsist on seal casserole and Molson. Their hobbies include wearing flannel, obsessing over American hegemony, exporting deadly Mad Cow disease and even deadlier Gordon Lightfoot and Nickelback albums.

Ouch! Here's the rest of Labash's ode to Canada.

Nats Roundup

2005-03-06T22:39:00.000-05:00

Here's the "Houston, We Have a Problem" weekend edition of who's hot and who's not on the Nats. The Nats split their two Sunday games. Nats team A beats the Astros, 9-4; Nats team B loses to the Mets 14-5.

HOT:

Brad Wilkerson: Smashed a longball against the Astros today, which was his second in as many games.
Termel Sledge: Four hits in his first five at-bats. He's making a case to start in the outfield, or perhaps his play is making him more attractive as trade bait for other teams.
John Patterson: With more performances like his three innings of one-hit ball yesterday, he will have a shot at notching the #5 spot on the rotation.
Ian Desmond: The 19-year old shortstop has no chance of making the team, but he propelled the Nats to victory with his 3-run triple on Saturday against the O's.

NOT:

Zach Day: Chicks dig the longball. but not when you're giving up home runs. His mediocre start against the Astros today won't help him avoid the bullpen when the season starts.
Alex Escobar: 0-3 against the Astros, and he's now hitless for the spring.
Mike Hinckley: A great prospect, but his performance against the split-squad Mets virtually ensures that he'll begin the year at New Orleans (AAA). Two innings, eight hits, one walk -- ugh.

Memories of Greisinger and McLean HS

2005-03-06T11:22:00.000-05:00

Reader Michael Krauss writes in:

You should consider writing about Seth Greisinger, a local guy who is fighting to make the team. His story is a good one, and he is a genuinely nice guy. [And he is the boy friend of one of my law students at Mason!]

I can't add too much to Barry Svrluga's nice piece Friday in the Post on Greisinger, a long-shot to make the Nats' squad. Greisinger was rushed to the majors with the 65-97 Detroit Tigers back in 1998 and, with a 5.12 ERA, pitched quite well for a 21-year old. After the Tigers overworked him at such a tender age, he required Tommy John surgery and hasn't been the same since. He didn't re-appear in the bigs until 2003 -- a stark reminder of what can happen to even the brightest prospects.

Greisinger also reminds me of a memorable moment in Annandale HS history, the school I attended in the not too-distant past, that had a difficult time getting attention for our sports teams. The school competed against the top Northern Virginia athletes in the Patriot League. With mega-schools Lake Braddock and Robinson as our main rivals, it was hard for our Annandale Atoms (yes, that was our team name) to get noticed. It's like being the Tampa Devil Rays in a division that includes the Yanks and Red Sox.

But there were exceptions. In 2000, Annandale's long-suffering baseball team managed to gain a slot in the regional playoffs. Their first-round opponent was one of the top baseball teams in the region that year: the McLean Highlanders. Annandale was the equivalent of the play-in team -- I believe they had the lowest seeding of the 16 teams in the tournament. And they upset the Highlanders on a sixth-inning rally that stunned McLean fans and put Annandale baseball on the map.

McLean, meanwhile, got a lot of attention because of Greisinger. Their fans would still mention his name at that game, even three years after his graduation. He was an icon for the small school known more for its academics. There aren't many local high school baseball players that even make the high minors. Cubs and A's reserve outfielder Robin Jennings, who also played for the Atoms back in 1989, is one. Joe Saunders, of West Springfield HS and VaTech, is another.

It would be great to see him pitch in a Nats uniform at RFK. It would be even nicer to see him live up to all that potential he once had as an Olympic standout and college star, back during my high school days.

Nats Gear Selling Fast

2005-03-03T16:04:00.000-05:00

I haven't personally seen a lot of Nats gear being worn around the city, but according to Peter Gammons, Washington Nationals merchandise is selling so fast that it is second only to the Red Sox (who I might add are a horrible, horrible baseball team). So go join the club and buy yourself and the kids some nice baseball caps. Brian Schneider and Gary Bennett like theirs.

Non-Sequitur of the Day

2005-03-03T11:41:00.000-05:00

From the reliably smarmy Dana Milbank in today's Washington Post:

Santorum aides dispute that, pointing out that both chambers have passed some version of what Santorum's spokeswoman calls the "enormously popular" proposal. Santorum put charitable giving at the top of what he called the "Senate Republican Poverty Alleviation Agenda."

But the other GOP senators at Santorum's event had different ideas in mind. Kay Bailey Hutchison (Tex.) made a pitch for extending tax breaks for married couples. Sam Brownback (Kan.), reading from a speech with the message "Love Jesus" hand-written at the top, spoke about prison recidivism. James M. Talent (Mo.) promoted welfare revisions.

I know Milbank comes from a feature-writing background at the New Republic. but how is it relevant that Brownback's speech had "the message Love Jesus on it?" For most Americans, it would be a sign of personal religiosity. Clearly, Milbank is trying to send a not-so-subtle message with that clause.

Hi!, and Thinking About 2005

2005-03-03T01:58:00.000-05:00

Howdy there. My name is Josh (not to be confused with first-on-this-blog Josh), and I've been blogging for about two and a half years over on my own blogspot site, but I'll be joining the crew over at Nationals Review for baseball and politics blogging (not to try to encourage crossovers, but I'll probably do the occassional pop culture and local flavor posts over there). I'm a senior at American University, and a regular poster at Baseball Primer.

Last month, SG at the Replacement Level Yankees Blog ran 100 simulations of the 2005 season. Surprisingly, our Nats finished with an average record of 81-81, winning 6 divisions and taking 6 more wild cards (Primer discussion here). This doesn't seem to mesh with Buster Olney's rankings, placing the Nats 29th. Of course, neither does the Braves' identical 81-81 record.

Why the optimism? Szymborski's ZiPS system, which the projections are based on (available here), really likes the Nats' pitching. Livan Hernandez is projected at a 3.85 ERA (34th among all starters) and Tomo Ohka is right behind at 3.89. The highest ERA in the projected Opening Day rotation is Zach Day's 4.61. There's a grain of salt to be taken with these projections (I'll be interested to see how Diamond-Mind's own numbers rate the Nats), but it looks like the Nats might not be as bad as the MSM thinks.